Expectedly, the first analyst notes on the impact of the just concluded machinists strike at Boeing on the commercial plane manufacturer's production plans have begun to arrive. New York-based Bernstein Research has now put out that the Chicago-headquartered Boeing's plans to ramp up 787 Dreamliner deliveries may have taken a hard knock.
In a 30 October client note circulated post Boeing's Q3 earnings teleconference, Bernstein has warned that 787 deliveries may fall short by a further 53 units in the first four years of production (2009-12). Overall, production numbers have now dropped by 153 from those announced last January.
According to Bernstein, Boeing will deliver no 787s next year, only 41 in 2010, then 55 in 2011 and 87 in 2012-an overall slippage of 53.
This is Bernstein's fourth reassessment of the 787's production this year.
In January, after Boeing pushed first delivery to launch carrier ANA to early 2009, Bernstein revised its delivery schedule for the period 2009-12 to a total of 335 aircraft. This assessment included 41 deliveries in 2009, 71 in 2010, 103 in 2011 and 120 in 2012.
The announcement of a second delay in April, which pushed first delivery to ANA to the third quarter of 2009, Bernstein reduced deliveries by 18 aircraft for 2009-12 to 317.
This was reduced by another 89 to 236 for the same period, after a June investor update was issued by 787 Program VP and GM, Pat Shanahan. According to the June reassessment, Boeing would deliver 29 aircraft in 2009, 38 in 2010, 70 in 2011 and 103 in in 2012.
Post strike settlement, Qantas said its first Dreamliner (ship 21) would not arrive until May 2010, confirming fears that production schedule had indeed been set back another six months.