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Russian nuclear subs for India - one or two? news
Rajiv Singh
23 June 2009

Very likely, as has happened with all contracts signed in the period 1998-2004, the contract for the Akulas - should it be for twins - would now be hanging fire with the Russians determined to negotiate a higher price for completion and subsequent lease of the second submarine than was earlier committed to.

A discrete silence from the New Delhi may be indicative of its desire not to reveal its 'blue water' strategies, before the means to deliver them should fructify.

With the Chinese navy (PLAN) already fielding  a large nuclear submarine force, which allows it to extend operations to the Indian Ocean region with ease, the Indian Navy needs not just a token presence of a single nuclear submarine but also the comfort of numbers.

It's not certain when the indigenous ATV ''baby boomers'' are likely to slip into the water. It is also not certain if it's a single ATV hull that has been laid down at the Vizag yard or two. What is certain is that the Indian Navy needs a nuclear submarine force in numbers soon, given the dramatic turnaround in the capabilities of the Chinese Navy and the rise in strategic importance of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

All of the world's high and medium intensity conflicts are located in this strategic area, including the American-led Global War on Terror (GWOT). Given the incredible rise in the price and importance of petroleum and the massive amount of shipping tonnage that is now criss-crossing IOR waters the region has assumed significance previously accorded only to the Atlantic seaboard at the peak of the Cold War.

It has been noted, particularly with the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier affair that the Russians let their intentions to re-negotiate existing contracts be known through inspired media reports. It has also been noted that after a period of silence, and denial, New Delhi is then forced to acknowledge the troubles they are faced with regard to a particular 'Russian,' contract.

Such tactics may have resulted in prices of Russian contracts being revised upwards, but they has also seen a significant erosion in the Russian domination of the Indian defence market as the Indian defence establishment is now making it a point to source ever larger portions of their requirements from non-Russian sources.


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Russian nuclear subs for India - one or two?