Tokyo: The Japanese ministry of defence has selected the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning-II as its next mainstay fighter jet but will sign a contract for 40 of these 'high-tech' fighters only in 2011, in order to ensure that the much-talked about stealth jet actually delivers on its performance parameters.

Japanese agency reports say the defence ministry will seek fiscal allocation only in the 2011 budget for the purchase of 40 of these advanced 'stealth' fighter jets.

The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is a fifth-generation, single-seat, single-engine, stealth, multirole fighter that, currently, is estimated to cost 9 yen billion ($101 million) each.

According to a Kyodo news agency report, the ministry will launch a full acquisition process in December 2010, but make budgetary requests for the stealth plane only in the fiscal 2011 budget. This is so, for there is a view in the government that contracts should not be finalised until fiscal 2012, by when the jet's actual capabilities, as against stated capabilities, should be evident.

The F-35 will begin extensive flight testing only in 2010. So far, it has reportedly completed a mere three per cent of its total flight tests.

The F-35 is being jointly developed by the United States, Britain, Australia and other countries. Lockheed Martin is the lead contractor for the project, assembling the final product from portions manufactured by various contractors.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which is designed to evade radar, would be inducted by Japan in a bid to boost its air-defence capabilities against neighbour China which is set to enhance its own capabilities by developing its own next-generation aircraft.

Japan had initially wanted to acquire the US F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets but current US export regulations prohibit export of the F-22. Also, the fighter will no longer remain in production as orders from Pentagon have been frozen at the current level of 187.

In opting for the F-35, Japan has overlooked the Boeing F/A-18 and F-15FX and the Eurofighter, which is made by a consortium of European manufacturers.

The F-35 Lightning II
As with the much ballyhooed F-22 Raptor, so with the F-35 Lightning-II – chances are bright it will turn out to be an overpriced lemon. (See: Lockheed's F-22 Raptor – a maintenance nightmare)

Matters have not been helped with a recent announcement by Lockheed Martin that the test of the US Marine Corps' short-take-off, vertical-landing variant of the JSF -- has once again been delayed until December due to ''poor weather.'' This has led to some uproarious comments by analysts as to a new definition of an ''all-weather fighter aircraft'' – one that cannot fly in ''all weather,'' or, perhaps, in any weather at all.

Such is the cutting-edging technology that the F-35 boasts of - goes the sneer.

More relevant, a Pentagon-established Joint Estimating Team (JET) report says that the cost growth stage for this aircraft is just beginning. The JET was established to look into persistent reports that the whole programme was behind schedule and slated to vastly overshoot its allocated budget.

The JET's report has been refuted by Lockheed Martin without convincing analysts who point to similar arguments being advanced with respect to other programmes that also turned out to be prize lemons – the DDG-1000, LCS, FCS, VH-71, etc.

According to secretary of defence, Robert Gates, the F-35 will be "less than half the price … of the F-22." At $65 billion for 187 aircraft, the F-22 Raptor cost $350 million for each plane. 

At $299 billion for 2,456, the F-35 would seem a bargain at $122 million each.

However, analysts say, the F-35 unit cost has now reached the stage where it will begin a relentless climb.

In 2001, the Pentagon said it will buy 2,866 aircraft for $226.5 billion – $79 million per airplane.  In 2007, that unit cost increased to $122 million, with more cost and fewer aircraft on order. 

The new JET assessment is about to reconfirm that the F-35 program will cost up to $15 billion more, and that it will be delivered about two years late. It is being said that the JETs findings may even be worse.

With flight testing only three per cent complete, only 17 per cent of the aircraft's characteristics will be validated through flight testing by the time the Pentagon has signed contracts for more than 500 aircraft.  Analysts point out the rest of the glitches will be discovered by operational squadron pilots.

They claim that it will surprise no one should the F-35 total programme unit cost reaches $200 million per aircraft after all glitches are accounted and paid for. 

As compared to the F-35, the latest version of Lockheed Martin's F-16 costs about $60 million. The A-10, which the F-35 will also replace, costs about $15 million.

The F-35 is slated to replace almost 4,000 F-16s and A-10s built, with just over 1,700 F-35s. That is less than half the aircraft with more than double the money.

While the lobby-ridden US Congress is oblivious to all these concerns, as long as the dollars keep flowing to their constituencies, parliamentarians and analysts in Australia, Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands – the programme partner nations - are expressing deep concern.

The F-35's single largest international partner is the United Kingdom, where the two fighting arms – the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force - have decided to reduce their F-35 order from 138 aircraft to 50. 

Analyst point out that the problems with the F-35, indeed, the F-22 Raptor as well, is not limited to its cost- but extend to its performance as well. The "high tech" features of these aircraft and the long range radar have imposed design faults that compromise the aircraft with issues related to weight, drag and other vulnerabilities.

The only time such ''stealth'' fighters or bombers have succeeded in operational conditions have been against primitive air defences, such as those fielded by Iraq or Serbia. The Serbian forces actually shot down a high-profile B-2 Stealth bomber.

 President Obama has clearly expressed his outlook that he wanted to stop "the special interests and their exotic projects that are years behind schedule and billions over budget." 

It remains to be seen when he begins to take a hard look at the F-35 programme. He has put his foot down on the F-22 Raptor, as well as a costly presidential helicopter programme, that too was headed nowhere. 

The F-35 would appear to be headed in the same direction as the F-22 and it would remain to be seen if the Pentagon applies corrective action.

Till such time, Japan has shrewdly decided to hedge its bets on the F-35 programme.