With deferment of the controversial GAAR by another year, a lot of uncertainty has been taken off the Indian markets. Soon after the finance minister Pranab Mukherjee announced that GAAR provisions would be applicable to income of FY14 and subsequent years, Sensex turned green for the first time on Monday.
Will this bring back the dollars that left Indian shores and lift investor mood? Will this protect Nifty from drifting down further?
Both Dipan Mehta (member BSE and NSE) and SP Tulsian (sptulsian.com) subscribe to the theory of "relief" and "status quo" as one year is a fairly long peiod of time to decide on buying or selling.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Mehta said the move is positive for markets which is desperately looking at foreign flows via FIIs and FDIs. Add to this the comfort of cooling crude prices which will make the Resreve Bank of India's job to manage inflation a lot easier. So if all all things remain steady, our markets may outperform the global markets over the next 6-8weeks, he said.
On his part, Tulsian believes that one year relief gives ample time to the FIIs to either create a set up or set right their portfolio and take a call on the market. He, however, is not confident of the Nifty getting past 5250-5300 in the current series. "You cannot really say you have the courage of going long from hereon on any stock. The banking sectors are the worst beaten, we have seen the Bank Nifty falling to 9400. So nobody will say that he will have the courage to initiate longs in the Bank Nifty. Probably this rally will be short lived. Huge shorts were kept pending in the system. We may see market correcting again from Thursday, Friday."
Similarly, Sudarshan Sukhani was not convinced that the GAAR development will add life to a listless market and remained skeptical of a meaningful recovery. "We will add 20 more points as the GAAR effect, so Nifty may touch 5120. I don't think GAAR is going to affect anything more than 20-30 points. This pull back would have come anyway," said Sukhani.