Kolkata:
An annual economic growth of 8 per cent up to 2026 will
not be enough for India to avoid a rise in unemployment,
according to a study conducted under the aegis of the
London School of Economics.
The
outcome of the study, entitled India Project, is the outcome
of a two-year-long research carried out by a team of LSE
experts led by Professor Tim Dyson. It was presented at
a workshop on `India in the 21st century: Population,
economy, human development and environment' organised
by the Centre for Development and Environment Policy,
Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta.
The
report said that current policy stances towards agriculture
were unsustainable and some southern and western States
were growing faster than others. The paper also called
for better implementation of existing policies.
The
study estimated that India's population will touch 1.4
billion by 2026 and could well approach 1.6 billion by
2051. The only way the country could miss the 1.5 billion
mark is by an "unexpectedly severe HIV/AIDS epidemic
or a full-scale nuclear war," say the authors.
Around half the population rise will be accounted for
by Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh
with a projected rise of 50 per cent between 2001 and
2026. The future fertility declines
in these four States will be crucial in determining the
extent of decline in India's population beyond 2026, feel
the researchers.
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