labels: industry - general, economy - general, agriculture
Deficient rainfall feared news
03 June 2005

New Delhi: The Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation has predicted a deficit monsoon this year. Scientists from the centre, using the multi-grid ensemble technique say monsoon rains would be 34 per cent below normal in June this year, reversing an earlier forecast of 22 per cent excess rainfall in the month. For the month of July the Centre has maintained its earlier forecast of rains being 12 per cent below normal.

Giving a break up of the performance of the monsoon the Centre has said rains would be 24 per cent below normal in the first week of June, 40 per cent below normal in the second week, 16 per cent lower than normal in the third week and a notable 38 per cent below normal in the fourth week.

For August, the centre forecasts rains above 30 per cent normal in the first week, five per cent above normal in the second, 6 per cent above normal in the third week and nine per cent above normal in the fourth week.

Finance minister P Chidambaram says he would prefer to stick to the forecast of the Indian Meteorological Department, which in April this year, had predicted normal south-west monsoon rains and said rains would be 98 per cent of the long-period average.

In the months of June and July the main crops grown are rice, cotton and oilseeds with the harvesting done in October and November. Inadequate monsoons in the these two months would lead to lower oil and sugar output as well as the sugar crop which is dependent also on the monsoon.

Scientists say July is a crucial month for Indian agriculture and a 12 per cent deficit in rainfall could signal worrying signs. A deficit of this amount or more in the first two months of monsoon season means a two-thirds probability of a nation-wide drought, according to the group of researchers at the Centre of Mathematical Computation.

Giving details of the performance of the monsoon scientists at the centre said rains for the entire country monsoons would be close to normal plus minus ten per cent. The worst shortfall is likely to be in Central and Eastern India, while some areas might see flood like situations.

India needs 88 centimetres of rain between the months of June, July, August and September and the scientists hope that the situation will improve in August-September.

The country suffered its worst drought in 15 years in 2002 when rains were deficient by 49 per cent. However, it is too early to say if 2005 will be a repeat of 2002.

Even though the country's dependence on the monsoon has steadily fallen over the years as the share of farming has fallen to 21 per cent of the economy, from 50 per cent in 1951, a crop failure can still slowdown the economy, boost inflation and put pressure on the government to find resources from its over-stretched budget to feed the poor.

According to the weather department the monsoon has set in over the southern part of Sri Lanka after a delay of about five days and may hit the Indian coast earlier than the arrival date of
June 7. Normally the monsoon arrives in Kerala around June 1, but is yet to make its presence felt.

Last year monsoon rains in June and July were 13 per cent below normal, hitting output of winter oilseeds and sugar.

Stock markets fell on the research centre's report. The 30-share BSE Sensex, Mumbai lost 74.34 points to end the day below the 6,700-mark at 6,655.56. The broader 50-share S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) was also down by 22.90 points to close at 2,064.60.


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Deficient rainfall feared