New
Delhi: The Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer
Simulation has predicted a deficit monsoon this year. Scientists from the
centre, using the multi-grid ensemble technique say monsoon rains would be
34 per cent below normal in June this year, reversing an earlier forecast
of 22 per cent excess rainfall in the month. For the month of July the Centre
has maintained its earlier forecast of rains being 12 per cent below normal.
Giving
a break up of the performance of the monsoon the Centre has said rains would
be 24 per cent below normal in the first week of June, 40 per cent below normal
in the second week, 16 per cent lower than normal in the third week and a
notable 38 per cent below normal in the fourth week. For
August, the centre forecasts rains above 30 per cent normal in the first week,
five per cent above normal in the second, 6 per cent above normal in the third
week and nine per cent above normal in the fourth week. Finance
minister P Chidambaram says he would prefer to stick to the forecast of the
Indian Meteorological Department, which in April this year, had predicted
normal south-west monsoon rains and said rains would be 98 per cent of the
long-period average. In
the months of June and July the main crops grown are rice, cotton and oilseeds
with the harvesting done in October and November. Inadequate monsoons in the
these two months would lead to lower oil and sugar output as well as the sugar
crop which is dependent also on the monsoon. Scientists
say July is a crucial month for Indian agriculture and a 12 per cent deficit
in rainfall could signal worrying signs. A deficit of this amount or more
in the first two months of monsoon season means a two-thirds probability of
a nation-wide drought, according to the group of researchers at the Centre
of Mathematical Computation. Giving
details of the performance of the monsoon scientists at the centre said rains
for the entire country monsoons would be close to normal plus minus ten per
cent. The worst shortfall is likely to be in Central and Eastern India, while
some areas might see flood like situations. India
needs 88 centimetres of rain between the months of June, July, August and
September and the scientists hope that the situation will improve in August-September.
The country suffered its worst drought in 15 years in 2002 when rains were
deficient by 49 per cent. However, it is too early to say if 2005 will be
a repeat of 2002. Even
though the country's dependence on the monsoon has steadily fallen over the
years as the share of farming has fallen to 21 per cent of the economy, from
50 per cent in 1951, a crop failure can still slowdown the economy, boost
inflation and put pressure on the government to find resources from its over-stretched
budget to feed the poor. According
to the weather department the monsoon has set in over the southern part of
Sri Lanka after a delay of about five days and may hit the Indian coast earlier
than the arrival date of
June 7. Normally the monsoon arrives in Kerala around June 1, but is yet to
make its presence felt. Last
year monsoon rains in June and July were 13 per cent below normal, hitting
output of winter oilseeds and sugar. Stock
markets fell on the research centre's report. The 30-share BSE Sensex, Mumbai
lost 74.34 points to end the day below the
6,700-mark at 6,655.56. The broader 50-share S&P CNX Nifty of the National
Stock Exchange (NSE) was also down by 22.90 points to close at 2,064.60.
|