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India Inc could see its post-tax profits swell nearly 78 per cent in fiscal 2009-10 amidst robust growth, unlike in the previous fiscal 2008-09, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in its latest update. This is in contrast with the 39.7 per cent decline in corporates' post-tax earnings in the December 2008 quarter, caused by a sudden fall in demand and a steep fall in commodity prices, poor export demand, high cost of borrowings and inventory losses incurred by several companies, the report said. "India Inc is expected to post a robust 77.9 per cent growth rate in PAT (profit after tax) in 2009-10," the economic think-tank said in the report. This high growth is attributed to an expected return to profit by the petroleum products sector from January-March 2009 quarter after three quarters of negative or nil growth in the previous two quarters in 2008, according to CMIE. The earnings of the petroleum sector constitutes more than a third of the profits of the rest of Indian industries. "Excluding the petroleum product sector, the rest of Indian corporates are expected to report a 23.1 per cent rise in aggregate PAT in 2009-10," the CMIE has said. Sales of corporates are expected to rise 7.4 per cent in FY'10 although the first half will see blunted growth, CMIE said, adding, for non-financial services, sales are likely to be in the range of 16-19 per cent, lower than the preceding quarters. ''Manufacturing sector is likely to report a 11-12 per cent decline in sales in the first half of FY'10," the report said. Banking, construction and electricity sectors were expected to remain isolated from the impact of global slowdown, it said. CMIE also projected a marginal increase in the country's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in FY 10 as compared to an expected 6.5 per cent in FY 09. ''We expect real GDP growth to moderate to 6.5 per cent in 2008-09. This would inch up a tad to 6.6 per cent in 2009-10," the CMIE report said. While the agriculture and industry sectors posted a recovery in January and February, the services sector did not witness any such recovery, the think-tank said. Although it revised downwards its forecast for agricultural production in FY 09 from 2.6 per cent to 2.2 per cent, CMIE noted ''agriculture has recoverd in the second-half of 2008-09 compared to its performance in the first-half of the year." For FY 10, CMIE expects agricultural crop production to increase by 1.3 per cent and the sector as a whole to clock a growth of 2.1 per cent in the year. CMIE, however, warned that the agricultural sector is more vulnerable in 2009-10 to the monsoon than it has been in recent years due to water levels in major reservoirs being very low.
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