New Delhi: According to the India Meteorological Department
(IMD), rainfall during July in the country as a whole
is likely to be 98 per cent of the 70-year Long Period
Average (LPA) for this month, with a model error of plus
or minus nine per cent. July rains are crucial for agriculture,
since they coincide with the vegetative growth phase of
the kharif crop sown during May-June.
The
country receives an average area-weighted rainfall of
around 880 millimetres (mm) during the four-month monsoon
season, which includes roughly 150 mm in June, 290 mm
in July, 270 mm in August and 170 mm in September. While
the June rains determine the total area that is sown,
crop yields are largely influenced by the extent of precipitation
in July and August.
During
the pre-monsoon period from March 1 to May 31, the country,
as a whole, received an average area-weighted rainfall
of 161.6 mm, which was 25 per cent more than the normal
LPA of 129.6 mm for these three months. In the current
monsoon season from June 1-23, the average rainfall at
131.7 mm has again been 21 per cent more than the normal
LPA of 108.7 mm for this period.
Nineteen
out of the country''s 36 meteorological sub-divisions have
recorded `excess'' precipitation, i.e rainfall exceeding
the LPA by 20 per cent of more. The monsoon has been `normal''
in 12 other sub-divisions, i.e rainfall being within 80
per cent range of the LPA on either side. Only 5 sub-divisions
have witnessed deficient monsoon, i.e a shortfall of 20
per cent or more. These include the geographically contiguous
sub-divisions of Marathwada (minus 21 per cent), Telangana
(minus 50 per cent) and Rayalaseema (minus 45 per cent),
besides Assam & Meghalaya (minus 31 per cent) and
Arunachal Pradesh (minus 20 per cent) in the Northeast.
With
the North-eastern States receiving good rains over the
last few days, the problem of deficient rains is now mainly
confined to the Telangana and Rayalseema region of Andhra
Pradesh, where acute drought conditions over the last
couple of years and build-up of debts have led to many
farmers committing suicide. But seen in totality, the
country has had good rains so far, which, the government
hopes, would translate into in a bumper harvest and also
have a sobering impact on the present inflationary trend
in the economy.
The
IMD director-general, S.K. Srivastava admitted that the
monsoon has entered a `lull'' phase over the last week,
even while maintaining that it would revive ``by Saturday
or Sunday.'''' The monsoon this time arrived in Kerala almost
two weeks in advance on May 18. The lull since around
June 23 has meant that the monsoon will now advance over
Delhi not earlier than July 4, against the normal date
of June 29.
All
these have raised doubts as to whether the rains may falter
in July, just as it did in the 2002 drought year. In 2002,
the monsoon arrived three days ahead of schedule and the
country actually received a four per cent above normal
rainfall in June. But July 2002 recorded a shortfall of
49 per cent, making it the worst ever in the history of
recorded observations.
A
repeat of 2002 could be a disaster because farmers would
have to go in for re-sowing, which not only entails extra
cost but also raising crops of shorter maturities and
lower yields. Srivastava, however, dismissed fears of
rains being deficient in July. According to
the IMD''s latest long-range forecast update, the total
rainfall for the 2004 monsoon season would be 100 per
cent of the LPA, with a model error of plus or minus four
per cent.
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