New Delhi: A real gross domestic product growth
of 7.4 per cent being registered during the first quarter
of the current fiscal, against 5.3 per cent for the
corresponding period of the previous year.
The
higher growth rate has partly to do with the relative
buoyancy experienced by the farm sector last year. Since
the agriculture year runs from July to June - unlike
the financial year (April-March) - this has resulted
in the growth during the 2003-04 rabi season (ending
June ) spilling over to the first quarter of the current
fiscal.
Agricultural
growth during April-June 2004 has, therefore, been higher
at 3.4 per cent, compared to the 0.1 per cent year-on-year
increase for April-June 2003. On the other hand, the
3.4 per cent first quarter farm sector growth rate does
not factor in this year''s erratic monsoon rains, which,
according to the agriculture ministry, has led to a
10.5 per cent decline in production of kharif foodgrains
and a 9.2 per cent dip in oilseeds output.
What
this means is that the impact of the indifferent monsoon
and lacklustre kharif crop will be felt in the second
and third quarters of the current fiscal. And given
that this would come on the back of last year''s excellent
kharif harvest, one can expect a significant deceleration
in the farm sector during the July-September and October-December
quarters, thereby, pulling down the overall GDP growth
rates as well.
While
industry has grown by 6.9 per cent during the first
quarter of 2004-05, compared with last year''s corresponding
6 per cent figure, the services sector, too, has notched
up a 9.5 per cent year-on-year increase (7.4 per cent).
In fact, had the farm sector not grown at all, the first
quarter GDP growth rate would still have been a healthy
6.7 per cent.
Within
industry, the manufacturing sub-sector has grown by
8.1 per cent, while the maximum growth in services has
come from `trade, hotels, transport and communications''
(11 per cent).
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