New
Delhi: Global ratings agency Standard & Poor's has said that the recent
"dramatic" improvement in Indo-Pak relations promised distinct benefits
for the two countries if the thaw can last. "The
likely rewards for Pakistan can be largely defined in concrete economic terms,
the combined effect of which would boost the country's positive credit rating
trajectory. For India, however, the benefits are of a less tangible nature,
and would accrue more to New Delhi's international standing," S&P
said in its latest report. S&P
rates Pakistan's foreign currency at "B+" with "Stable"
outlook and local currency at "BB" with "Stable" outlook
while India enjoys a higher rating of "BB+" with "Stable"
outlook. For
India, S&P said, "the benefits are clearly more on the political
side, rather than economic."
Although
there would be tangible gains from increased trade with Pakistan and easier
access to Iranian gas, these would be less significant to India because of
the comparative size of India's economy over Pakistan, it said. India's greatest
mileage from a deep rapprochement with Pakistan would accrue from its improved
standing on the world stage and with the US. This
in turn could prove instrumental in better trade and defence ties with the
superpower, and would also advance India's claim to a permanent seat in the
Security Council. Terming the thaw in relations as "impressive",
S&P said despite occasional setbacks, the two countries have come a long
way since the Lahore Declaration in 1999. Listing
out the three major benefits to Pakistan, S&P said improvement in ties
would reduce its military expenditure, which could be channelised in social
sector. This would help Pakistan attain better fiscal balance and reduce debt
burden. Pakistan's
defence expenditure has averaged 25 per cent of total expenditure,
or 4.5 per cent of GDP, over the past eight years. This has dwarfed its development
funding, which averaged 13.6 per cent of expenditure. This
is a level of defence spending that Pakistan can ill afford, S&P said.
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