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While
emerging markets continue to excite Franklin Templeton's
Mark Mobius, India does not figure in his list of favourites
because of valuation concerns though China remains on
his list as do speaks of Korea, South Africa, Turkey and
Brazil.
"Right
now it would be Korea to begin, then China. Now when I
say China, I'm talking about the shares in Hong Kong moving
up at a nice pace. South Africa, Turkey would be the top
markets right now," he the investment specialist
and fund manager told CNBC-TV18.
"And
then maybe I'd throw in Brazil. There's a little uncertainty
there, but regardless of who gets elected in Brazil, the
situation looks good because it is moving ahead with.
He also added that from a global perspective the best
returns in the last three months have come from Turkey,
Brazil and Russia.
"The
best returns have been achieved by Turkey, Brazil and
it depends on what stocks you have, but Russia's been
very good as well."
On
the Sensex hitting a new high this morning, Mobius said
that he had not expected a new high for the Indian market
so soon and further said that with the average India P/E
at 16x, one needs to be cautious.
However
Mobius said, "It's a wonderful event that the Sensex
is reaching news highs because that's good news not only
for India but also for all emerging markets.
Asked
if he was surprised that so much money continues to come
into this country, which continues to outperform other
relatively seemingly cheaper emerging markets, he said'
"No, it is not a surprise when one sees the very
rapid growth that India is now experiencing."
He
said, "Also, it is not surprising because of the
momentum that's been building up in the market, meaning
that it is quite possible for the Index to move up to
very high levels.But at the same time, the valuations
are expensive relative to other countries around the world.
So caution is necessary in such cases.
Mobius
also said that if the multiples come down as result of
higher earnings, then many fund managers will have to
rethink in terms of re-allocation to this market, purely
because of the sort of returns its delivering. "Certainly,
there must be a re-assessment but right now the average
price to earning ratio for India is about 16 times."
He said.
He
added, "So we have to be careful because that is
pretty high compared to places like Japan, which is at
17 times and the US, which
is at 14-14.5. So we have to be cautious now and there
is no question the high growth rate in India is a very
positive factor and could result in revision of earnings
but it remains to be seen."
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