Kolkata: While the Economic Survey 2002-03 congratulates India on the fine performance of the industrial sector having logged a 6.1-per cent growth vis-à-vis a 3.3-per cent growth in the previous year, the economy has miles to go in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, which slid to 4.4 per cent against a 5.6 per cent in the previous year.

Commenting on the issue, Indian Chamber of Commerce Secretary General Nazeeb Arif says: “It’s time we looked at a double-digit growth rate and eschewed a situation where the economic fortunes of the nation are monsoon-dependent.”

He points out that the agricultural sector needed to be revitalised into more value-added areas, and for this investments are required in creating more rural roads and a national cold-chain infrastructure.

He says unless drastic changes are brought about in the countryside with better farm infrastructure, India’s economic growth would be subject to uncertainties like the vagaries of the monsoons.

The Economic Survey also talks of record foreign direct investment inflows into the country of Rs 21,286 crore and points out that this happened despite calamities like the Gujarat earthquake and the terrorist attacks on Parliament. This ‘feel-good factor’ might be short-lived. The complete loss of face of the government post-Godhra with the ensuing communal riots in Gujarat exactly a year ago, might tell a different story in the Economic Survey next year, feel economic experts.

According to representatives of the business community, a double digit GDP growth rate could be achieved only by major structural changes such as improvement of infrastructure, capital market expansion and labour reforms.

According to a top industrialist, the prediction that the disinvestment target will be missed by a wide margin for want of consensus was a cause of concern.. He pointed out that there is a huge political doublespeak with regard to the process of disinvestments in the country. “While some states pursuing disinvesment schemes at a great speed they are blocking any consensus at the national level.”

Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC) president VikramThapar says ICC is pleased to take note of the fact that encouraging signs of success in manufacturing exports have been witnessed in 2002-03. “The manufacturing sector could get back its rightful place under the sun if the right initiatives are taken.”

The business community is also viewing the six-point agenda announced by the Economic Survey to boost industrial growth with a certain level of cynicism. They feel that multiple point agendas are put on paper for quite some time now. “It is time we demand actual growth rather than strategy.”

It is also surprising that no growth projections for the next fiscal year have been given by the Economic Survey. While it is true that often the government does not adhere to these projections; however, these would come in handy to see which way the economy was going, especially when there are welcome signs of recovery in the horizon.

The most disquieting trend in the survey is the expectation that the fiscal deficit for the current fiscal to be around 5.5 per cent against the budget estimate of 5.3 per cent. The increasing debt and deficit levels have made the fiscal situation quite precarious.

Lastly, the outlook for industrial growth would depend on the continued progress on infrastructure, movement towards low and uniform customs tariff, movement towards, value-added tax, reform of labour laws and elimination of small-scale reservations as suggested by the Economic Survey.