Though
India's economic reforms started a decade-and-half back,
the economic potential of the country was acknowledged
much later by multilateral institutions, think tanks and
analysts. Even then, the country never caught the world's
imagination the way China had over the last two decades.
India
was always considered a laggard when it came to performance,
hesitant to initiate reforms and almost always letting
opportunities slip by. When China maintained GDP growth
of over 9 per cent consistently, our performance has been
patchy. Even when manufacturing and services performed
exceedingly well, we were still left praying to the rain
gods to not let down farm output.
Despite
the reduction in the absolute number of the poor, India
remained host to a significant percentage of the world's
poor when China had managed the most dramatic reduction
in the number of poor in history.
The
year 2005 saw a significant shift in the way the world
looks at India; it started mentioning India and China
in the same breath. Conferences were no longer about 'China
versus. India' but 'China and India'. Some even
coined the term Chindia, to reflect the increasing significance
of both the countries in the new global economic order.
India
was no longer only about cows, snake charmers, a bunch
of nerds and outsourcing. The country was finally accepted
as an emerging economic power which could become the third-largest
economy by the middle of the century. 'The India Growth
Story' became an established theme which finally captured
the imagination of the rest of the world.
Surging
economic growth
The economy grew at 8 per cent during the first half of
the current financial year and looks all set to achieve
growth of over 7 per cent for the third year in a row.
The underlying momentum is visibly strong and has given
enough confidence to policy makers to forecast sustained
growth above these levels over the next few years.
The
planning commission is targeting growth of over 8 per
cent during the next plan period. With more focus on agricultural
reforms, this is very much possible. If the economy can
build on the momentum in manufacturing, even the 10 per
cent growth rate targeted by the prime minister is within
reach.
After
last year's slumber, the government finally got serious
about the infrastructure sector. The ambitious national
highway development programme came back to prominence
its next phases are being finalised.
The
airport modernisation programme finally moved to the tendering
stage and should move to implementation by early next
year despite the latest re-look at the tendering process.
The government also announced a major development programme
for sea ports towards the end of the year. These infrastructure
investments should help considerably in sustaining the
economic momentum.
Sensational
highs for stock indices
At the beginning of the year most analysts and brokerages,
including foreign brokerages, were sceptical of a continued
strong performance by the stock markets. They were all
proved wrong as the India growth story attracted more
and more investors to the markets.
The
year saw the Sensex closing with returns of more than
40 per cent and the Nifty went up more than 35 per cent.
Both indices recorded new lifetime highs during the year
as the markets saw higher participation from domestic
investors.
Calendar
year FDI flows topped the $10-billion mark for the first
time ever during the year. Investors from Japan and other
South-east Asian countries started investing while those
from the US and Europe increased their exposure to the
Indian markets. India-dedicated funds became the trend
and investment meets and conferences became frequent as
interest in the country rose further.
The
primary issues market gained momentum through the year
and by the second-half a number of companies started coming
out with IPO's. Unlike the '90s, the quality of the companies
coming out with issues are significantly higher as only
companies with a track record are now allowed to raise
capital. The strong demand for public issues saw aggressive
pricing of issues in the second half of the year.
Second
hottest global FDI destination
India moved one notch higher and emerged as the second
most favoured FDI destination behind China but moving
above the US. This is another clear indication that overseas
investors are now taking the country's manufacturing potential
more seriously.
The
year also saw some very large FDI proposals reaching the
agreement stage, especially in the steel sector. The multi-billion
dollar proposals of Posco and Mittal Steel deserve special
mention. Large foreign corporations are increasing their
investments in established domestic companies, like Vodafone
picking up a stake in Bharti TeleVentures.
An
area where the country lagged significantly was manufacturing
of electronic goods and chip manufacturing, despite a
sizeable domestic market. The year saw significant investment
proposals in this sector from some of the largest global
corporations.
Some
of the largest electronic contract manufacturing companies
globally, like Flextronics, are stepping up their presence
in the country. Strong engineering and design skills and
abundant availability of talent are making the country
attractive to such companies.
The
significant strengths of India in scientific research
and development are getting more and more attention. While
global research organisations attracted the best talent
from the country in earlier decades, now these organisations
are setting up facilities within the country. Companies
like GE, Intel and Microsoft expanded their research facilities
in India this year.
Disappointments
on the reforms front
There was not much action on the reforms front during
the year as most of the proposals were stuck in the pulls
and pressures of coalition politics. Much was expected
from the dream team combination of prime minister Manmohan
Singh and finance minister P Chadambaram at the centre
when it took office last year. Sadly, they have not yet
delivered enough to justify their billing as mascots of
reforms.
Despite
the periodic statements of intent from the government,
the disinvestment programme has been put in the back burner
in the face of stiff opposition from the Left parties.
The BHEL disinvestment almost became a flash point between
the government and the Leftists during the year.
Considerable
amount of works remain in areas like labour reforms, power
sector and pension reforms. The fact that the views of
the government and the Left parties have significant differences
in all these areas makes it difficult to arrive at a consensus.
The opposition party, which should have no ideological
difficulty in supporting the government in these areas,
is keen on playing the politics of opposition even at
the cost of the country's economic growth.
Implementation
of VAT was the most significant reform during the year.
Contrary to the doomsday prophesies of critics, the implementation
of the new system went without a hitch. Even the opposition-ruled
states which had initially refused to implement VAT accepted
the new system by the end of the year.
Implementation
of VAT across the country and abolition of central sales
tax will go a long way in creating a unified and vibrant
domestic market.
Reaching
out to the world
The year was a landmark one for Indian companies as they
went in for a large number of acquisitions in key overseas
markets. During the second half of the year, such announcements
came on a daily basis.
Among
the industrial groups, the Tatas were the most aggressive
in overseas acquisitions. Various Tata group companies
spent nearly $1 billion on overseas acquisitions this
year. Some of these acquisitions were sizeable, running
into hundreds of million dollars.
However,
the confidence shown by the smaller Indian companies in
making overseas acquisitions was the most amazing part
of the story. Companies in sectors as diverse as pharmaceuticals,
IT services, BPO and textiles made strategic acquisitions
across the globe to increase their reach.
Though
these acquisitions are small by global standards, the
Indian corporate sector is learning valuable lessons in
the process. Smaller companies are easier to integrate
and the experience would enable domestic companies to
scale up the size of the deals in future.
Easy
availability of capital is making these acquisitions possible
for Indian companies. The year saw significant activity
in the domestic primary issues market as well as in overseas
capital issues in the form of GDR's and FCCB's.
Glitter
of the yellow metal
While stock markets were on a bull grip during the year,
gold also did not fare badly. The domestic price of the
traditional investment favourite of most Indians gained
nearly 15 per cent during the year as demand remained
strong across the country.
By
the end of the year gold prices rose above the $500 per
ounce mark in international markets after many years.
Increasing prosperity in countries like China and India
is fuelling the demand for gold jewellery, driving gold
prices on a northward journey.
High
prices of gold did not have much of an impact on absolute
demand for the metal. Imports of gold into the country
rose as compared to the previous year. Higher gold prices
had a beneficial impact on the demand for silver. Prices
of silver also rose during the year, in tandem with gold
prices.
Hot
property
The real estate market remained red hot during the year
as housing demand from the middle class continued to rise.
Relatively stable interest rates and beneficial tax policies
for the housing sector announced in this year's budget
helped maintain the growth.
Commercial
property market saw some significant developments during
the year. Parts of the old textile mill land in Mumbai
were auctioned at rates beyond all expectations. Companies
with significant land holdings became the favourites in
the stock markets and stocks of property development companies
attracted good interest from investors.
The
year also saw the launch of property funds in the country.
Well known groups came out with real estate investment
funds targeted at wealthy individuals and institutional
investors. Large overseas
investors made significant investments in real estate
companies while institutions like HDFC announced funds
targeted at overseas investors.
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