Mumbai:
Fitch Ratings says India's 2006-07 budget presented today
confirms that fiscal consolidation is on track, but argues
that the pace remains undemanding. While it views positively
the central government's outperformance of its 2005 /
06 budget targets, this has to be seen in the context
of strong growth, still low interest rates and the movement
of some expenditure items off-budget.
The
central government deficit came in at 4.1 per cent of
GDP (budget 4.3 per cent ) for 2005/06 and the revenue
deficit (current revenue less current expenditure) at
2.6 per cent (2.7 per cent budgeted). The process of fiscal
adjustment, as mandated under India's Fiscal Responsibility
and Budget Management Act (FRBMA), is also set to resume
in 2006-07, having been put on hold in 2005-06.
Fitch
notes that the FRBMA has injected a greater measure of
fiscal discipline and the last three financial years have
been marked by a greater degree of fiscal consolidation.
However, Paul Rawkins, senior director in Fitch's Sovereign
Ratings Group, says, "India's rapid rate of economic
growth presents a golden opportunity to accelerate fiscal
consolidation, yet the general government deficit has
contracted by barely 2 per cent of GDP over five years
and public debt has only recently begun to show signs
of stabilising."
The
government estimates that the general government deficit
was around 7.7 per cent of GDP in 2005-06, down from a
peak of 9.9 per cent in 2001-02, while Fitch estimates
general government debt levelled out at 85 per cent of
GDP.
With
86 per cent of revenue receipts earmarked for non-discretionary
expenditure on such items as salaries, debt service, subsidies
and defence, the government has little room for manoeuvre
and has struggled to deliver on its campaign promises
of higher outlays on infrastructure and social needs.
With
little scope to compress expenditure, the authorities
have become ever more dependent on higher economic growth
to deliver fiscal consolidation without compromising their
more populist campaign objectives. Fitch questions the
sustainability of this strategy. "Officials readily
admit that they are banking on continued high growth as
the engine of further fiscal correction, yet any sudden
downturn in growth could manifest itself in a sharp rise
in public debt as occurred between 1999 and 2003,"
says Rawkins.
In
the light of the expenditure constraints that all Indian
governments labour under, the key to sustainable fiscal
adjustment lies in expanding the tax base. Fitch views
positively the ongoing measures to further extend the
tax net to the rapidly expanding service sector - which
have begun to bear fruit -- and notes the significant
progress that has been made in overhauling state government
finances. Thus, 18 states have now introduced their own
FRBM Acts - a necessary measure to qualify for debt relief
from the central government - and 25 states and union
territories had introduced VAT by end-2005.
Fitch
lauds the emphasis on improved tax administration and
greater expenditure efficiency, but considers that this
will be easier said than done. Once again, the budget
sidesteps the issue of the reform of subsidies, where
a significant proportion of the cost is sustained off-budget.
With higher oil prices set to become a permanent feature
of the world economy, India needs to address this issue
sooner rather than later. Rationalisation of personal
income and corporate taxes has occurred in recent years,
but key tax exemptions in other areas remain pervasive,
costing an estimated 1.5 per cent of GDP per annum.
On
official expectations that the Indian economy can grow
at 10 per cent per annum, thus emulating China, Fitch
considers this will only be possible if the government
is prepared to pursue more aggressive fiscal consolidation,
thereby allowing domestic capital markets to meet the
growing demands of private investors.
With
domestic demand growing strongly and the current account
balance reverting to deficit, Fitch notes that the traditional
link between
public finances and the balance of payments has begun
to reassert itself and is likely to constrain growth over
time in the absence of a more balance policy mix.
Fitch
rates the Republic of India Long-term Issuer Default 'BB+'
on both the Long-tern foreign and local currency scales.
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