São José dos
Campos, 17 November 2006: During the 7th
Embraer Day held November 16 and 17 in São
José dos Campos, Brazil, Embraer (NYSE:
ERJ; BOVESPA: EMBR3) presented its 20-year forecast
for world demand of 30 to 120-seat commercial
jets, as well as for the business jet market.
At the same event, Embraer announced its airline
and business jet delivery forecast for 2007
and 2008.
Long-Term Market Outlook
Commercial Aviation Market
Embraer foresees a global demand
for 7,500 jets in the 30 to 120-seat capacity
segment over the next 20 years. The Company
estimates that 3,050 aircraft will be delivered
between 2007 and 2016, with the remaining 4,450
units to be delivered between 2017 and 2026.
The total market value is estimated at US$ 220
billion, as presented below:
Market
Segment (Seats) |
2007-2016 |
2017-2026 |
2007-2026 |
30 - 60 |
300 |
1,100 |
1,400 |
61 - 90 |
1,100 |
1,500 |
2,600 |
91 - 120 |
1,650 |
1,850 |
3,500 |
30 120 |
3,050 |
4,450 |
7,500 |
The forecast indicates that the
30 to 60-seat market segment has reached maturity,
but will continue to play an important role
in the North American and European air transportation
systems and will develop markets such as China,
Mexico and Russia that have strong needs for
regional aviation.
The 61-90 seat segment will continue
providing natural growth to regional airlines
on high demand 50-seat regional jet routes,
sustaining revenue growth and market share.
In addition, it will help airlines to replace
ageing aircraft and will right-size aircraft
capacity to market demand with improved service
levels.
The 91-120 seat segment will expand
to help airlines to match aircraft capacity
to market demand, through ageing aircraft replacement,
right-sizing of narrowbody routes with excess
capacity and low-cost-carrier expansion into
mid-size markets.
Commercial jets deliveries forecast
for the 30 to 120-seat segment by region
Region
|
Total
Deliveries |
Share |
USA, Canada & Caribbean |
3,850 |
51% |
China |
630 |
9% |
Europe |
1,290 |
17% |
Russia & CIS |
505 |
7% |
Latin America |
480 |
6% |
Asia Pacific |
385 |
5% |
Middle East |
230 |
3% |
Africa |
130 |
2% |
Total (2007-2026) |
7,500 |
100% |
The full report for the 2007-2026
Embraer Market Outlook will be available online
by January 2007 at www.embraer.com/outlook.
Business Jet Market
Embraer estimates an overall demand for 11,115
business jets over the next ten years, valued
at approximately US$ 169 billion. The new air
taxi market may add another 2,500 to 3,000 aircraft
to the Very Light Jet (VLJ) segment.
Embraer entered the Very Light and Light Jet
segments with the launch of the Phenom jets,
in May 2005, and introduced the Lineage 1000,
an ultra-large executive jet based on the EMBRAER
190 commercial jet platform, in May 2006.
Business jets deliveries forecast
by product segment (2007-2016)
Segment
|
Total
Deliveries |
Share |
Very Light |
2,715 |
24% |
Light |
2,390 |
21% |
Mid-light |
1,080 |
10% |
Mid-size |
1,305 |
12% |
Super Mid-size |
1,250 |
11% |
Large |
1,310 |
12% |
Ultra-Long Range |
850 |
8% |
Ultra-Large |
215 |
2% |
Total (2007-2026) |
11,115 |
100% |
Embraer is enhancing its Executive
Jets customer support and services offering.
The Company is adding four wholly-owned service
centers and revamping the authorized service
center network. By 2008, 45 service centers
will support Embraer´s Executive Jets
fleet. A joint-venture is being established
with the Canadian company CAE to develop training
for the Phenom jets. Embraer is also investing
heavily in parts inventory and logistics, as
well as in the enhancement of its special maintenance
programs.
Embraer's commitment to business
aviation has produced significant results in
2006. As of today, the Executive Jets division
has added US$ 1.8 billion of new contracts.
Firm orders for the recently-launched Phenom
100 and Phenom 300 Very Light and Light Jets
stand at over 340.
Currently, there are 87 Legacy
600 executive jets operating in 18 countries.
Embraer expects to deliver 25 to 30 Legacy 600
jets per year in 2007 and 2008, up from 20 units
in 2005 and 13 in 2004.
In mid-2008, deliveries of the
Phenom 100 will commence, totaling 15-20 units
in the second semester. In 2009, when deliveries
of the Phenom 300 begin in the second semester,
the production rate of the Phenom 100 and Phenom
300 is projected to reach 120-150 units combined.
Delivery of up to two Lineage
1000 jets is expected for the second semester
of 2008, in its first production year. In 2009,
three to four Lineage 1000 jets are planned
to be delivered.
Delivery Forecast for 2007
and 2008
Embraer expects to deliver, in 2007, between
160 and 165 aircraft in the commercial aviation,
executive aviation and defense and government
(sate-owned airliners and government authority
transportation) segments. For 2008, the Company
estimates delivery of 195 to 205 aircraft, including
15 to 20 Phenom 100 Very Light jets with deliveries
expected to begin in the second half of the
year.