Report: Embraer to dominate regional aircraft market over the next decade

A new report released by aerospace market research firm, Forecast International, says that Embraer is set to corner 40.8 per cent of the projected $99.7 billion in sales of regional aircraft over the next 10 years. According to the report the lack of a turboprop in its existing product line is not going to affect Embraer's prospects.

Forecast also predicts that Bombardier will take a 33.2-per cent share over the same period, while turboprop manufacturer ATR will secure seven per cent. The projection leaves the balance 20 odd per cent for new entrants Sukhoi, AVIC I and Mitsubishi.

Forecast projects an overall market for 3,800 regional aircraft, including 2,539 regional jets and 1,261 turboprops through the end of 2016. During this period Embraer will produce 1,268 regional jets, or roughly 33 per cent of the total; Bombardier will build 1,067 jets and turboprops combined, or about 28 per cent, and ATR will ship 395 turboprops, or a bit more than 10 per cent, says the report.

None of the other three manufacturers will contribute more than 10 per cent of the total, it adds.

Citing a continuing shift in demand toward larger airplanes, the report said Embraer stands best positioned to take advantage of the trend, at least until it faces competition from Bombardier's proposed C Series in 2013.

However, it stresses that the industry needs further easing of scope-clause restrictions in airline pilot contracts before the market for 90- to 125-seat jets reaches its full potential.

The study also noted the continuing resurgence in turboprop demand, driven by growth in air traffic, rising fuel prices and a need on the part of regional airlines to cut costs and fares to compete with low-fare carriers.