Airlines to lose $5.2 billion in 2008: IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said that its revised industry financial forecast predicts the the global airline industry to post losses of $5.2 billion in 2008, based on an average crude oil price of $113 per barrel ($140 for jet fuel).

Giovanni Bisignani, IATA's Director General and CEO said, ''The situation remains bleak. The toxic combination of high oil prices and falling demand continues to poison the industry's profitability. We expect losses of US$5.2 billion this year.''

Fuel now 36 per cent of operating costs

''While there has been some relief in the oil price in recent months, the year-to-date average is $113 per barrel. That's $40 per barrel more than the $73 per barrel average for 2007, pushing the industry fuel bill up by $50 billion to an expected $186 billion this year,'' said Bisignani.

Fuel is expected to rise to 36 per cent of operating costs, up from 13 per cent in 2002.

Demand slowing
IATA's industry traffic data for July showed a continued slowing of demand.

July year-on-year passenger demand growth fell to 1.9 per cent - the lowest in five years.

Capacity increased by double that - 3.8 per cent - indicating that service cuts are not keeping pace with the fall in demand. This pushed the load factor for the month to 79.9 per cent, a drop of over one per cent compared to July 2007.
 
The surprise of July was a 0.5 per cent drop in passenger demand by Asia-Pacific carriers, partly attributable to a change in Chinese visa requirements, but also showing that economic weakness is spreading to previously robust economies.

Cargo demand in July contracted by 1.9 per cent compared to 2007. Asia-Pacific carriers - the largest players in the cargo market - were hard hit with a 6.5 per cent drop in demand.

Consequent to the weaker economic outlook, IATA has revised downward significantly its traffic forecast for domestic and international markets combined.

Passenger traffic is now expected to grow on average by 3.2 per cent (was 3.9 per cent) and air freight volumes by just 1.8 per cent (was 3.9 per cent).  This is only half the pace of expansion seen in 2007 and is boosted by the stronger growth seen at the start of the year.

Strong traffic growth allowed the industry to partly absorb the rise in fuel costs from 2003-2007.  This is no longer the case.

Regional 
 ''While some regions will show small profits, the negative impact of the industry crisis is universal,'' said Bisignani.

North American carriers are expected to post losses of $5.0 billion in 2008 making them the hardest hit by this industry crisis.

Asia Pacific is expected to see profits shrink from $900 million in 2007 to $300 million this year.

European profits will tumble seven-fold from $2.1 billion in 2007 to $300 million in 2008.

Middle Eastern profits will drop by $100 million to $200 million.

Latin American and African carriers will see losses deepen to $300 million and $700 million respectively.

Outlook for 2009: losses of $4.1 billion
Announcing its initial outlook for 2009, the IATA expects the difficult business environment to continue. 

Most economies are expected to deliver even weaker economic growth next year, which will negatively impact air travel and freight. With an expected oil price of $110 per barrel ($ 136 for jet fuel) and continued weak growth (2.9 per cent), industry losses are expected to continue at $4.1 billion.

The 2009 fuel bill is expected to increase, with hedging offering less protection, to $223 billion comprising 40 per cent of operating expenses.

Fundamental change needed
''While we expect the bottom line to improve by about $1 billion next year, the industry will be $4.1 billion in the red,'' said Bisignani.

''This crisis is re-shaping the industry in more severe ways than the demand shocks of SARS or 9.11. When fuel goes from 13 per cent of your costs to 40 per cent in seven years with an increased cost implication of $183 billion, you simply cannot continue to do business in the same way. Fundamental change is needed,'' said Bisignani.

''Airlines have reduced non-fuel unit costs by 18 per cent since 2001. Airports and air navigation service providers must join the effort. Efficiency gains are critical but cannot fully absorb the impact of sky-rocketing fuel prices,'' said Bisignani.

''This crisis is highlighting the need for greater commercial freedom. Airlines are facing enormous challenges. To be successful and continue providing jobs to 32 million people and supporting $3.5 trillion in economic activity, airlines must be able to do business like any other business,'' said Bisignani.

Bisignani said that more airlines have gone bust in 2008 than in the aftermath of 9.11. He said that to cure the structural sickness of the industry, made all the more obvious by the high price of oil, a strong dose of liberalisation is needed.

''The US-EU talks later this month are one opportunity to address ownership restrictions in an important market. And IATA is taking the unusual step of facilitating a global dialogue on an Agenda for Freedom next month in Istanbul.''

''Simply weathering the current storm is not an option. We must take the opportunity of these extraordinary times to facilitate extraordinary change to strengthen the industry with normal commercial freedoms,'' said Bisignani.