Bombardier offers robust 20-year forecast for aviation industry

Le Bourget, Paris:  Declaring that the next 20 years will remain "positive" for the aviation industry, Bombardier Aerospace has reiterated its forecast in the 20/149-seat market at the Paris air show. The forecast projects deliveries of 11,200 aircraft over the period, valued at around $393 billion.

According to the Toronto, Canada-based aerospace and transportation major, the major area of growth will be in the 100/149-seat segment, where it forecasts a demand for 5,900 aircraft. The company said that new technology and low-cost operators would spur this demand.

This segment is also the target market for Bombardier's proposed C-Series, which it hopes to launch by 2008.

According to Bombardier officials, fuel price and pressures on yield will continue to drive demand for low-cost-per-seat. About 36% of the demand for aircraft with fewer than 100 seats will be for fuel-efficient turboprops, officials said.

While the industry will gravitate to larger aircraft, there still will be a market for 50-seat regional jets, which revolutionized the regional airline industry more than a decade ago. Such aircraft are in demand for emerging markets, such as China, Eastern Europe and Mexico, notes the forecast.

"The airline industry continues to reinvent itself through new business models, outsourcing and restructuring," the forecast concludes. "The combination of highly efficient aircraft and cost effective operators will continue to create new growth opportunities."