India’s 2014-15 GDP growth pegged lower at 7.3%

India's national income in terms of real gross national product (GDP) increased by 7.3 per cent in the financial year 2014-15 ended 31 March 2015, as per revised estimates, against the earlier estimate of 7.4 per cent.

GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is now estimated at Rs10,644,000 crore (against Rs10,657,000 crore estimated earlier (on 9 February 2015), showing a growth rate of 7.3 per cent against 7.4 per cent estimated earlier.

This is based on the first revised estimates of GDP for the year 2013-14 of Rs9,921,000 crore, released on 30 January 2015, based on the new data series, an official release stated.

Real gross value added (GVA) at basic constant prices (2011-12) in the year 2014-15 is now estimated at Rs9,827,000 crore against Rs9,858,000 crore estimated earlier (on 9 February 2015), showing a growth rate of 7.2 per cent against 7.5 per cent estimated earlier.

The sectors which registered growth rates of over 7.0 per cent included trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting, financial services, real estate, professional services, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services, public administration, defence and other services as also manufacturing.

Growth rates in the agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying and construction are estimated at 0.2 per cent, 2.4 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively.

In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the ministry of agriculture showed downward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in food grain production (251.12 million tonnes from 257.07million tonnes) for the year 2014-15, showing a decline of 2.3 per cent compared to second advance estimates and a decline of 5.4 per cent compared to the final estimates of 2013-14.

According to the second advance estimate of horticulture crops, production of fruits and vegetables recorded growth of 2.1 per cent. Accordingly, production in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector in 2014-15 has shown a lower growth rate of 0.2 per cent, as against the growth rate of 1.1 per cent in the advance estimates.

Among industry groups, production in the mining sector recorded growth of 1.4 per cent during 2014-15 against an estimated growth rate of 1.3 per cent in the advance estimates. Production of coal and crude oil recorded growth rates of 8.2 per cent and (-)0.9 per cent in whole year of 2014-15 as compared to growth rates of 9.1 per cent and (-) 0.9  per cent during April-December 2014. The growth of 'mining and quarrying' is now estimated at 2.4 per cent against the advance estimate of 2.3 per cent.

The manufacturing sector recorded a growth rate of 2.3 per cent during the whole of 2014-15, against the estimated growth rate of 1.6 per cent in the advance estimates. Due to this change, manufacturing sector growth is now estimated at 7.1 per cents against the advance estimate growth of 6.8 per cent.

The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel recorded growth rates of 5.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively, in 2014-15 against 7.9 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, during April-December 2014. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised to 4.8 per cent against 4.5 per cent in the advance estimates.

In the service sector, 'trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting sectors' recorded a growth of 10.7 per cent in 2014-15 against 8.4 per cent in the advance estimate released in February 2015.

Sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major sea ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation recorded growth rates of (-) 2.8 per cent, 4.7 per cent, 7.0 per cent and 12.2 per cent, respectively, during April-March of 2014-15 against (-) 5.7 per cent, 5.0 per cent, 8.1 per cent, 10.6 per cent in the advance estimates.

Sales tax collection during 2014-15 recorded growth of 9.3 per cent.

The net tone per km and passenger kilometers in the railways sector has shown growth of 5.2 and 2.7 per cent, respectively, during 2014-15 against 5.8 and 2.7 per cent in the advance estimates.

Further, private corporate sector recorded significant growth in the trade and communication sector during 2014-15.

The financial, real estate and professional services sector has shown a growth rate of 11.5 per cent during 2014-15 compared to growth rate of 13.7 per cent in the advance estimates.

The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth of 10.9 per cent and 9.2 per cent, respectively as of 31 March 2015.

The sector public administration, defence and other services has shown a growth rate of 7.2 per cent in the provisional estimates, as against the growth rate of 9.0 per cent in the advance estimates, mainly due to fall in total expenditure of central government than anticipated.

The central government revenue expenditure net of interest payments showed an increase of 8.5 per cent during April-December 2014-15, which was used for estimation in the advance estimates, whereas during April-2014-March 2015, the central government's revenue expenditure net of interest payments showed an increase of only 5.6 per cent.