India’s GDP growth slows to 7.1% in July-Sept quarter

Growth in gross domestic product (GDP), however, has shown a rise over the corresponding quarter of the previous year when the economy grew 6.3 per cent. And, despite the fall in GDP numbers, India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy. 

"This quarter also faced the challenge of higher oil prices resulting in much higher import bill and the weakening of the rupee. The economy is on track to maintain a high growth rate in the current global environment," the finance ministry said in a statement. 

GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs33,98,000 crore, against Rs31,72,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 7.1 per cent. 

Quarterly GVA (basic price) at constant (2011-2012) prices for Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs31,40,000 crore against Rs29,38,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 6.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

The economic activities which recorded growth of over 7 per cent in Q2 of 2018-19 over Q2 of 2017-18 are ‘manufacturing, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’, ‘construction’ and ‘public administration, defence and other services’. Growth in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’ and financial, real estate and professional services is estimated to be 3.8 per cent, (-) 2.4 per cent, 6.8 per cent, and 6.3 per cent respectively during this period.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2018-19 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 3.8 per cent compared to a growth of 2.6 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18. 

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2018-19 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector declined by 2.4 per cent compared to a growth of 6.9 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas and IIP mining registered growth rates of 6.2 per cent, (-) 4.4 percent, (-) 2.0 per cent and 1.0 per cent during Q2 of 2018-19 compared to 8.5 per cent, (-) 0.7 per cent, 4.7 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2018-19 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew 7.4 per cent compared to a growth of 7.1 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18. 

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2018-19 from ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector grew 9.2 per cent compared to a growth of 7.7 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18. The key indicator of this sector, namely, electricity recorded a growth rate of 7.5 per cent during Q2 of 2018-19 compared to 6.1 per cent growth in Q2 of 2017-18.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2018-19 from ‘construction’ sector grew 7.8 per cent compared to a growth of 3.1 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel recorded growth rates of12.5 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively, during Q2 of 2018-19 compared to growth rates of  0.6 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively, recorded in Q2 of 2017-18.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2018-19 from service sector grew 6.8 per cent compared to a growth of 8.5 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18. 

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2018-19 from financial, real estate and professional services grew 6.3 per cent compared to a growth of 6.1 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18. 

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2018-19 from public administration defence and other services grew 10.9 per cent compared to a growth of 6.1 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18. 

GVA at basic price at current prices in Q2 of 2018-19, is estimated at Rs41,46,000 crore against Rs37,03,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing an increase of12.0 per cent. 

GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs45,54,000 crore against Rs40,68,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 12.0 per cent. 

India’s GDP grew 8.2 per cent in the first quarter that ended in June 2018. The Reserve bank of India has forecast an economic growth of 7.4 per cent for current financial year.

The wholesale price inflation (WPI), in respect of the groups all commodities, including minerals, manufactured products and electricity recorded growth rates of and 5.0 per cent, 8.2 per cent, 4.4 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively, whereas inflation rate for food articles declined by 2.1 per cent during Q2 of 2018-19 over Q2 of 2017-18. 

Consumer price inflation (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.9 per cent during Q2 of 2018-19 compared to a growth of 3.0 per cent during Q2 of 2017-18.

Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs26,31,000 crore in Q2 of 2018-19 against Rs23,58,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs18,52,000 crore in Q2 of 2018-19 against Rs17,30,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18. 

In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2018-19 are estimated at 57.8 per cent and 54.5 per cent, respectively, against the corresponding rates of 58.0 per cent and 54.5 per cent, respectively, in Q2 of 2017-18. Growth rates of PFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 11.6 per cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively, during Q2 of 2018-19 compared to 9.9 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.

Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs5,99,00 crore in Q2 of 2018-19 against Rs5,10,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs4,22,000 crore in Q2 of 2018-19 against Rs3,74,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2018-19 are estimated at 13.1 per cent and 12.4 per cent, respectively, against the corresponding rates of 12.5 per cent and 11.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2017-18. Growth rates of GFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 17.3 per cent and 12.7 per cent, respectively, during Q2 of 2018-19 compared to 6.9 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs13,28,000 crore in Q2 of 2018-19 against Rs11,37,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs10,99,000 crore in Q2 of 2018-19 against Rs9,77,000 crore in Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2018-19 are estimated at 29.2 per cent and 32.3 per cent, respectively, against the corresponding rates of 27.9 per cent and 30.8 per cent, respectively, in Q2 of 2017-18. Growth rates of GFCF at current and constant prices are estimated at 16.8 per cent and 12.5 per cent, respectively, during Q2 of 2018-19 against 8.4 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.