India's real GDP in current fiscal likely to grow at over 8.5 per cent: RBI poll
16 Nov 2010
The Indian economy is expected to post an 8.5-per cent growth in real GDP in the current financial year against the earlier projection of 8.4 per cent, the Reserve Bank of India said in its quarterly survey of professional forecasters.
However, they expect the growth rate to decline to 8.0-8.4 per cent in the 2011-12 financial year, RBI said.
The latest forecast of GDP growth rate is marginally above the 8.4 per cent growth forecast in the previous survey, RBI noted.
The forecasters attribute the marginal increase in real GDP growth rate to better performance of the agriculture and service sectors in the subsequent quarters. The sectoral growth rate forecast for 2010-11 suggests moderate upward revision for agriculture and service sectors, they noted.
The forecasts are based on a probability survey of the year-on-year real GDP growth falling into various ranges.
Forecasters have assigned the highest probability of 48.8 per cent to an 8.5-8.9 per cent growth range for the year 2010-11.