Plan panel expects improved 8 per cent growth next year

The Planning Commisssion said on Monday that it expects the economy to grow 6.3 per cent in the current fiscal up to March 2010, going up to 8 per cent in 2010-2011 and 9 per cent in 2011-2012.

In its presentation 'Current economic outlook' before the prime minister during the full panel meet on Monday, the panel said that in the current fiscal year, it sees farm growth down 2.5 per cent, with foodgrain output down 18 million tonnes; industry growth at 7.8 per cent, and services growth at 8.2 per cent.

"We project a DDP growth of 8 per cent in 2010-11 and nine per cent in 2011-12. This is optimistic but not impossible. If we have normal monsoon in 2010-11, we can expect a strong rebound in agriculture next year," the paper said.

The panel also said the decline in exports would slow down after 2010, when the developed economies would return to positive growth. "Exports would also recover as industrialised countries return to positive growth of one per cent in 2010 with further acceleration in 2011," it said.

India's exports are on a downslide since October 2008, due to the global slump in demand. In 2008-09, the country's overseas shipment grew by meagre 3.4 per cent to about $168 billion compared to the same period last year.

The GDP data released yesterday showed signs of recovery as Indian economy grew by 6.1 per cent during the first quarter of this fiscal ending 30 June, against 7.8 per cent in the corresponding period in 2008-09. The deficient monsoon has put this year's growth forecasts under some doubt. (See also: India's GDP up 6.1 per cent in Q1 2009-10 despite economic slowdown)