Global semiconductor capital equipment spending to decline 45 per cent in 2009: Gartner
10 Mar 2009
Mumbai: Deteriorating global economic conditions are causing a dramatic downturn in capital equipment spending for the semiconductor industry, says technology market researcher Gartner.
Gartner expects the receding environment to continue throughout most of 2009 before a slow recovery sets in 2010.
Worldwide capital equipment spending is forecast to total $16.9 billion in 2009, a 45.2-per cent decline from 2008 spending of $30.8 billion (see table ).
Gartner analysts said the most likely scenario has worldwide capital equipment spending reaching $20.3 billion in 2010, a 20.1-per cent increase from 2009.
''The dramatic crisis in world economics that came to light late in the third quarter and fully engulfed the fourth quarter of 2008 slowed capital spending in all segments of the semiconductor market,'' said Klaus Rinnen, managing vice president for Gartner's semiconductor manufacturing group.
Rinnen said, ''The overspending on memory in the past three years, combined with a retrenching consumer market, presents little potential for an upside until 2010.''
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Semiconductor Capital Spending | 44,577.8 | 23,863.4 | 27,828.9 | 38,924.3 | 48,339.4 | 42,283.2 |
| Growth (%) | -29.6 | -46.5 | 16.6 | 39.9 | 24.2 | -12.5 |
| Capital Equipment | 30,831.4 | 16,888.8 | 20,283.4 | 28,826.5 | 35,327.2 | 29,964.5 |
| Growth (%) | -31.1 | -45.2 | 20.1 | 42.1 | 22.6 | -15.2 |
| Wafer Fab Equipment | 24,697.8 | 13,306.0 | 15,578.2 | 22,590.6 | 28,353.3 | 24,229.8 |
| Growth (%) | -31.4 | -46.1 | 17.1 | 45.0 | 25.5 | -14.5 |
| Packaging and Assembly Equipment | 3,681.1 | 1,968.6 | 2,563.2 | 3,371.7 | 3,823.6 | 3,124.5 |
| Growth (%) | -29.0 | -46.5 | 30.2 | 31.5 | 13.4 | -18.3 |
| Automated Test Equipment | 2,452.5 | 1,614.1 | 2,142.0 | 2,864.2 | 3,150.2 | 2,610.2 |
| Growth (%) | -31.0 | -34.2 | 32.7 | 33.7 | 10.0 | -17.1 |
| Other Spending | 13,746.4 | 6,974.6 | 7,545.4 | 10,097.8 | 13,012.3 | 12,318.7 |
| Growth (%) | -26.0 | -49.3 | 8.2 | 33.8 | 28.9 | -5.3 |
| Source: Gartner (March 2009) | ||||||
Worldwide wafer fab equipment spending is forecast to decrease 46 per cent in 2009, and this follows a drop of 31 per cent in 2008. In 2009, lithography will perform less than the overall market, showing a 52 per cent decline compared with the total market drop of 46 per cent.
Gartner xpects lithography sales to be driven by the need for advanced 193 immersion tools for advanced production in 2009.
However, with much of the need for more-advanced production capabilities coming from the memory sectors, demand for the most-advanced lithography tools will still be lukewarm, it said.
After declining nearly 30 per cent in 2008, the packaging and assembly equipment (PAE) market is expected to fall nearly an additional 47 per cent in 2009. Some recovery for advanced process equipment could be seen in the second half of this year.
On a regional basis, Asia/Pacific will increase its share of PAE consumption throughout the forecast period. From just under 73 per cent of PAE shipments in 2008, Asia/Pacific will account for more than 82 per cent of all PAE sales by 2013. China will be the largest individual consumer of PAE this year, accounting for about 26 per cent of the total market.
The automated test equipment (ATE) market is projected to decline 34 in 2009. Macroeconomic conditions, as well as general industry conditions, will have to improve for quarterly growth to return in the middle of this year.
On a regional basis, test equipment sales will be dominated by increased shipments to the Asia/Pacific region. Shipments to Asia/Pacific will account for 70 per cent of the total market in 2009, and it will grow to account for 77 per cent of the market by 2013. This regional shift in test equipment consumption is largely driven by increased test outsourcing.