India’s sugar output may be exceed estimates : Survey

Sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer may exceed estimates by 11 per cent after farmers boosted planting which improved yields on increased fertiliser use.

According to surveys by the Geneva-based SGS SA for Bloomberg, output may jump to 17.68 million MT in the season started 1 October. The farm ministry and the Indian Sugar Mills Association have estimated the output at 16 MT. The SGS figure for the previous year was 16.1 MT which compares with 14.7 MT which is the estimates arrived at by the government and the mills.

A bigger than expected harvest may enable India cut its reliance on imports and arrest the surge in global prices this year. India turned a net buyer for the first time since 2006 on a shortage that sent prices soaring to a 28-year high in September.

According to Leonardo Bichara Rocha, an economist at the London-based International Sugar Organisation, in the event India's production turned out to be higher than expected on higher recovery and yield it could depress prices slightly.

The cane harvest in India may be 9.8 per cent higher this year at 297.95 MT, supported by a 3.8 per cent gain in acreage and a 5.7 per cent rise in yield due to better irrigation and fertiliser application, according to the survey which would be higher 5.7 per cent on the government's estimates of 249.5 MT. The SGS survey by five teams between 20 October and 3 November included six main cane-producing states among them Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the biggest producers.

Reports of 'bad crop'' conditions were higher this year in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh even as the health of fields in Maharashtra and Gujarat states was not affected, according to the survey. UP and Maharashtra reported lower incidence of pest attacks on standing crop as compared with the previous season.