Mobile users in India to reach 990.2 mn: Cosco

The number of mobile users in India is expected to reach 990.2 million, touching 71 per cent of India's population, as against 798.4 million mobile users in 2015, according to a Cisco study.

According to the study, Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2015 to 2020), India mobile data traffic will grow 12-fold from 2015 to 2020.

Growing at an annual rate of 63 per cent, it will reach 1.7 Exabytes per month by 2020 (the equivalent of 430 million DVDs each month), up from 148.9 Petabytes per month in 2015.

The country's mobile data traffic will account for 34 per cent of Indian fixed and mobile data traffic by 2020, up from 11 per cent in 2015 and mobile data traffic will grow 2 times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2015 to 2020. 

In India, 54 per cent of mobile connections will be 'smart' by 2020, up from 11 per cent in 2015 and 92 per cent of mobile data traffic will be 'smart' traffic by 2020, up from 53 per cent in 2015. The mobile traffic per mobile-connected end-user device will reach 1,352 MB per month by 2020, up from 149 MB per month in 2015, an annual 55 per cent growth.

''Considering all of this, backhaul capacity must increase so mobile broadband, data access, and video services can effectively support consumer usage trends and keep mobile infrastructure costs in check. Deploying next-generation mobile networks requires great deal of programmability, automation and service agility,'' said Sanjay Kaul, managing director, service provider business at Cisco India & SAARC.

''With the proliferation of mobile and portable devices, there is an imminent need for networks to allow all these devices to be connected transparently, with the network providing high-performance computing and delivering enhanced real-time video and multimedia. This openness will broaden the range of applications and services that can be shared, creating a highly enhanced mobile broadband experience,'' he added.

In 2015, the top 1 per cent of mobile users generated 7 per cent of mobile data traffic, down from 52 per cent at the beginning of 2010.

The top 20 per cent of mobile users generate more than half (59 per cent) of the mobile data traffic per month.

4G to grow 86-fold
In India, 4G connections will grow 86-fold from 2015 to 2020, at 144 per cent per annum and reach 26.2 per cent of total mobile connections by 2020, compared to 0.4 per cent in 2015.

The 3G connections will be 52.6 per cent of total mobile connections by 2020, compared to 15.7 per cent in 2015 and 2G connections will be 19.7 per cent of total mobile connections by 2020, compared to 83.9 per cent in 2015.

India's consumer mobile data traffic grew 1.9-fold, or 90 per cent in 2015 and is expected to grow 11.6-fold from 2015 to 2020 at annual 63 per cent.

The business mobile data traffic in the country grew 1.9-fold, or 85 per cent and is expected to grow 11.2-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 62 per cent. Consumers will account for 90 per cent of India's mobile data traffic, while business will account for 10 per cent by 2020.

The mobile video traffic in India will grow 20.8-fold from 2015 to 2020, at an annual 83 per cent, and reach 1.2 Exabytes per month by 2020, up from 59.8 Petabytes per month in 2015.

Video will constitute 72 per cent of the mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to 40 per cent at the end of 2015; while streaming audio will be 7 per cent of India's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to 10 per cent at the end of 2015.

Filesharing will be 2 per cent of India's mobile data traffic by 2020 and web and other data will be 19 per cent of India's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared with 48 per cent at the end of 2015.

In India, the average mobile connection speed was 1,016 kbps in 2015.  This average mobile connection speed will grow 3.1-fold (25 per cent per annnum) from 2015 to 2020, reaching 3,122 kbps by 2020.