Pragmatism to Boost Indo-US Space Cooperation Under Trump Despite Challenges: Experts

The Indo-US cooperation in the space sector is expected to reach a higher orbit in the satellite manufacturing segment under the incoming American President Donald J Trump’s regime factoring competition and other complexities, said Indian space industry players.

On the other hand, the satellite launch segment US billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX will continue its near monopoly and also garner a major share in the small satellite launch market with its economical rates, the industry experts added.

Musk, who is close to Trump, has been appointed by the latter to lead the Department of Government Efficiency along with former Republican presidential candidate and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

“In the Earth Observations/ Remote Sensing satellite segment, high-resolution data from American satellites remains popular.  American companies which are planning high numbers of satellite constellations may look to Indian companies for manufacturing subsystems,” remarked Dr. Subba Rao Pavuluri – President , Satcom Industry Association of India (SAI) and the Chairman and Managing Director  of Ananth Technologies Pvt Ltd.

Pavuluri also hoped that the US companies may look for innovation and manufacturing towards Indian companies with confidence after India’s success with the Chandrayaan-3 mission.

As regards the satellite launch vehicle segment or the rocket  segment, Pavuluri said depending on the new government’s policies, the American companies - SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab - who are prominently into space-launch activities will get a boost.  

“The launch cost by SpaceX - rideshare missions for launching small satellites into Low Earth Orbits will get a boost increasing their share,” Pavuluri added.

Officials also pointed out that Trump would look at increasing America’s share in the global business with his policies.

“MAGA - ‘Make America Great Again’ being Trump’s slogan; the actions of Trump’s Administration towards further enhancing the growth of America’s Space sector - technologically and scientific pursuit-wise - is anybody’s guess.  Musk having already been inducted into the Trump Administration could also influence the US Government in making further policy/ procedural improvements supporting the growth American space activities; and, such actions would of course further benefit the American space industry/ companies, as the national space programme of America, has all-through been supportive of their industry,” Pavuluri said.

Tapan Misra, Founding Director and Chief Scientist of SISIR Radar Pvt Ltd, compares the political outlook of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump, highlighting their shared nationalistic approaches.

Both leaders are focused on revamping indigenous production of advanced technology products, including those in defense, space, and mobile and satellite communications, to strengthen their economies, Misra opined.

Continuing further Misra noted that this drive could lead to an increased emphasis on exports and restrictions on imports, potentially creating political and economic conflicts, including technology denials and delays in tech imports.

Conversely Misra also points out that Modi and Trump share a pragmatic approach to governance, often setting aside political posturing to focus on real-world solutions.

While India and the US will likely compete in certain areas, they will also find opportunities to collaborate, particularly in the space sector, Misra said.

Pawan Kumar Chandana, Co-Founder and CEO of Skyroot Aerospace, observes that space cooperation between India and the US has flourished over the last decade, with strong institutional frameworks and shared strategic interests.

Chandana said Modi and President Joe Biden’s establishment of a Working Group for commercial space collaboration, along with projects like NISAR – an earth observation satellite jointly built by the US and India- and human spaceflight, reflect this growing alignment.

Under the second Trump administration, Chandana anticipates continued emphasis on space, citing his previous administration's creation of the US Space Force and its work on the Artemis programme.

Misra also touches on the competitive aspect of space collaboration, particularly in satellite launch markets. He notes that while the satellite launch market is only 4% of the global space economy, companies like SpaceX, with its reusable rocket technology, dominate the field.

Musk’s SpaceX achieves almost three launches per week as compared to Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) six per year. The per kg carriage cost of SpaceX will be much lower than that of Indian space agency, Misra said.

Misra feels that India will allow the US launch industry leeway as the technology gap is immense and market size is small.

Misra envisions Indian private satellite companies becoming major players in the global market, especially if they can produce sophisticated satellites at a fraction of the cost of Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO).

In terms of remote sensing technology, Misra is of the view that  India is on par with any other country and will become a significant player in both optical and radar-based remote sensing.

However, India’s position in the satellite communication market has been challenged by companies like SpaceX and OneWeb, which are integrating 5G with low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations.

Misra warns that India’s private space sector must respond with a competitive offering or risk losing ground in the satellite communication market.

Looking forward, Misra predicts that under Trump’s leadership, India and the US will continue to navigate the complexities of competition, cooperation, and complementarity in space.

While there may be challenges, he believes pragmatism will ultimately drive both countries toward mutually beneficial outcomes. If India and the US play their cards wisely, Misra concludes, the future of their space industries will be a win-win for both nations.