Growth moderatation spreads to more sectors in Q1: CII - Ascon survey
11 Jul 2011
The performance of industry moderated during the April-June 2011 quarter, reveals the latest CII ASCON survey.
The survey is based on collected data from 135 sectors of which an increasing number reported moderate growth of 0-10 per cent.
''High inflation, rising input cost and monetary tightening measures adopted by RBI are some of the reasons behind moderating growth in April-June 2011,'' said Mr. Chandrajit Banerjee, director general, CII.
The CII ASCON survey is based on the feedback collected from over 100 affiliated industry associations and interaction with the representatives of the associations and industry divisions representing more than 3,500 companies.
The respondents from various manufacturing-related industry associations and companies cover a wide spectrum of sectors including basic goods, intermediate goods, capital goods, consumer durables and non durables.
Out of 135 sectors covered by the CII ASCON survey, the number of sectors reporting excellent growth declined while the share of sectors reporting high and moderate growth have increased.
Sectors reporting more than 20 per cent growth declined to 20.7 per cent in April-June 2011 compared to 27.3 per cent in April-June 2010 while the sectors registering high growth of 10-20 per cent increased from 28.2 per cent in April-June 2010 to 31.8 per cent in April-June 2011 and the share of sectors reporting moderate growth of 0-10 per cent increased from 29.0 per cent to 42.2 per cent during the same period.
Growth Trend of the Manufacturing Industry during April-June 2011
|
| Excellent (>20%) | High | Moderate | Negative | Total sectors |
| (10-20%) | (0-10%) | (<0%) | |||
| | 20.7% (28) | 31.8% (43) | 42.2% (57) | 5.2% (7) | 135 |
| April-June 2010 | 27.3% (30) | 28.2% (31) | 29.0% (32) | 15.5% (17) | 110 |
| April-March 2010-11 | 35.5% (43) | 21.4% (26) | 38.8% (47) | 4.1% (5) | 121 |
- The figures in the bracket indicate number of sectors.
At the same time, the share of the sectors registering negative growth declined significantly, indicating reduced stress. The share of these sectors declined to 5.2 per cent in April-June 2011 from 15.5 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
An analysis of the data according to broad categories shows that consumer durables had the largest percentage of sectors in the excellent growth category followed by capital goods. On the other hand, consumer non-durables and basic goods performed poorly with a larger share of sectors in the high, moderate or negative growth segments.
Summary Statement
| Production | Excellent | High | Moderate | Negative | Total |
| Basic Goods | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 20 |
| Intermediate Goods | 3 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 25 |
| Capital Goods | 5 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| Consumer Durables | 14 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 38 |
| Consumer non-durables | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 19 |
| Other | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| Total | 28 | 43 | 57 | 7 | 135 |
Some of the sectors reporting excellent growth rates are machine tools (25 per cent), forgings (20.5 per cent), switchgears (27.9 per cent), tractors (25.5 per cent), LCVs (40.9 per cent), passenger cars (21 per cent), earth moving and construction equipment (24 per cent).
