India’s GDP expected to grow at 7.1% in current fiscal

The Indian economy is expected to grow at a slower pace of 7.1 per cent in the current fiscal (2016-17) against the 7.6 per cent growth recorded in the previous financial year, provisional figures released on Friday showed.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) of the country at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to reach Rs1,21,55,000 crore against the provisional estimate of GDP of Rs1,13,50,000 crore for the year 2015-16, released on 31 May 2016, according to the first advance estimates released on Friday.

Real gross value added (GVA) at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from Rs1,04,27,000 crore in 2015-16 to Rs1,11,53,000 crore in 2016-17. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2016-17 is 7.0 per cent against 7.2 per cent in 2015-16.

An above 7.0 per cent growth rate expected in sectors such as 'public administration, defence and other services', 'financial, real estate and professional services' and 'manufacturing' will help the economy maintain growth rate at 7.1 per cent, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

Sectors like 'agriculture, forestry and fishing', 'mining and quarrying', 'electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services', 'construction' and 'trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting' are estimated to record growth rates of 4.1 per cent, (-) 1.8 per cent, 6.5 per cent, 2.9 per cent and 6.0 per cent, respectively.

CSO expects the 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector to show a growth of  4.1 per cent in its GVA during 2016-17, as against the previous year's growth rate of 1.2 per cent.

GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from 'mining and quarrying' sector is estimated to decline by 1.8 per cent compared to growth of 7.4 per cent in 2015-16. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil  and natural gas registered growth rates of 1.6 per cent, (-) 3.5 per cent and (-) 3.7 per cent, respectively, during April-November 2016-17 compared to 4.3 per cent, (-) 0.4 per cent and (-) 2.3 per cent, respectively, during April-November, 2015-16. 

GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from 'manufacturing' sector is estimated to grow 7.4 per cent compared to a growth of 9.3 per cent in 2015-16. The private corporate sector has a share of around 72 per cent in the manufacturing sector.

GVA at basic prices for  2016-17 from  'electricity , gas, water supply and other utility services'  sector  is expected to grow 6.5 per cent compared to the 6.6 per    cent  growth in 2015-16.

GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from 'construction' sector is expected to grow  by 2.9 per cent compared to growth of 3.9 per cent in 2015-16.

The estimated growth in GVA for the trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting services during 2016-17 is placed at 6.0 per cent against a growth of 9.0 per cent in the previous year.

The estimated growth in GVA for the `financial, insurance, real estate and professional services' sector during 2016-17 is placed at 9.0 per cent compared to a growth of 10.3 per cent in  2015-16.

GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from the `public administration and defence and other services' sector is expected to grow by 12.8 per cent compared to a growth of 6.6 per cent in 2015-16.

The key indicator of this sector namely, union government expenditure net of interest payments and subsidies grew by 25.3 per cent during April-November 2016-17.