India’s GDP grew at 4.8% in July-Sept FY’14

India's economy is estimated to have picked up slightly, growing at 4.8 per cent in the July-September quarter of the current fiscal, against the 4.4 per cent growth rate recorded in the previous quarter.

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices is estimated at Rs13,68,000 crore for Q2 of 2013-14, against Rs13,05,000 crore in Q2 of 2012-13, showing a growth rate of 4.8 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

GDP growth, however, remained subdued in the September quarter despite hopes that strong rural demand and a rebound in exports will drive a sustained recovery ahead of elections due early next year.

Among economic activities, 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services' recorded the highest growth of 10 per cent year-on-year in Q2 of 2013-14, followed by 'electricity, gas and water supply' (7.7 per cent), agriculture, forestry and fishing (4.6 per cent), `construction' (4.3 per cent), `community, social and personal services' (4.2 per cent), 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' (4.0 per cent), 'manufacturing' (1.0 per cent) and 'mining and quarrying' (-0.4 per cent).

According to the first advance for 2013-14, production of  coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds are expected to have grown by 4.9 per cent, 1.9 per cent and 14.9 per cent, respectively, during the Kharif season of 2013-14.

Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing'  estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the estimated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries, the Central Statistical Organisation said while releasing the data.

According to the latest estimates available on the index of industrial production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 0.1 per cent, 1.2 per cent and 8.4 per cent, respectively, in Q2 of 2013-14.

The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel recorded growth rates of 5.9 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2013-14.

In the service sector, key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne km and passenger km have shown growth rates of 3.7 per cent and (-) 2.5 per cent, respectively, in Q2 of 2013-14.

In the transport sector, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-)22.1 per cent, 5.9 per cent, 0.4 per cent and 12.6 per cent, respectively, in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2012-13.

The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 12.0 per cent, and 15.4 per cent, respectively, as of September 2013-14.

GDP at factor cost at current prices is estimated at Rs25,05,000 crore, against Rs22,28,000  crore in Q2, 2012-13, showing an increase of 12.4 per cent.

The wholesale price index (WPI) in respect of the groups - food articles, inland fish, machinery and machine tools, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 16.3 per cent, 35.8 per cent, 2.0 per cent, 2.2 per cent, 13.0 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively year-on-year, during Q2 of 2013-14.

The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 10.9 per cent during Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2012-13.

Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs14,83,000 crore in Q2 of 2013-14 against Rs13,49,000 crore in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs8,55,000 crore in Q2 of 2013-14 against Rs8,37,000 crore in Q2 of 2012-13.

In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 56.6 per cent and 59.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of  58.2 per cent and 61.8 per cent, respectively, in Q2 of 2012-13.

Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs2,89,000 crore in Q2 of 2013-14 against Rs2,66,000 crore in Q2 of 2012-13.

At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs1,47,000 crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against Rs1,49,000 crore in Q2 of 2012-13.

In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 11.0 per cent and 10.3 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.5  per cent and 11.0  per cent, respectively, in Q2 of 2012-13.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs7,71,000 crore in Q2 of 2013-14 against Rs7,16,000 crore in Q2 of 2012-13.

At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs4,81,000 crore in Q2 of 2013-14 against Rs4,68,000 crore in Q2 of 2012-13.

In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 29.4  per cent and 33.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.9  per cent and 34.6 per cent, respectively, in Q2 of 2012-13.