Coordinated exit from global expansionary policy needed: Allianz
26 Nov 2009
The extremely expansionary monetary and fiscal policy was essential in the wake of the severe financial market and economic crisis and its consequences are still difficult to gauge.
''But it is clear that risks and costs will rise the longer the expansionary policy remains in place. It is therefore time to work out alternative exit strategies,'' said Michael Heise, chief economist at European financial services group Allianz.
According to Allianz, an optimal exit concept should be timed correctly and coordinated internationally to avoid new financial market bubbles.
The timing of the exit is crucial as, on the one side, the economic recovery must not be jeopardised while, on the other, inflationary risks must be avoided. According to Allianz, the world economy is enjoying a marked rebound which is set to continue in 2010 as well, allowing economic policy to temper its expansionary stance.
However, the recovery is not yet self-sustaining. The envisaged global fiscal boost for 2010 contained in the various stimulus packages should therefore be implemented as planned. But, beginning in 2011, active consolidation should then be tackled.
An exit from monetary policy should begin earlier than for fiscal policies. ''Monetary policy measures take longer to feed through and would have scant impact on the economy in 2010. The aim now must be to rein in the expansionary degree of monetary policy somewhat in order to counter excesses on the financial markets,'' said Heise.
