Defection may give Obama a dream majority

A politician defecting from his party for the sake of power would hardly cause a lifted eyebrow in India; the anti-defection law only means that politicians have to find more inventive ways to circumvent.

In the US, however, the single defection of Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania from the Republican to President Obama's Democratic Party has caused a stir.

Much of this is because Tuesday's defection brings the Democrats closer to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. The Democrats  now have 59 votes; and should their candidate Al Franken win a recount in Minnesota, which seems likely, it will have a clear majority of 60.

The equivalent of a two-thirds majority in the Indian parliament – which today looks a distant dream for our political parties – the Senate majority would effectively allow the Democrats to block any attempt by Congress to stall legislation, making it easier for Obama to push through his ambitious programme.

In the sub-continent, such a switch would be immediately put down to personal ambition; and Specter has not escaped similar charges. He was a Democrat until 1965, when he ran successfully on the Republican ticket for district attorney in Philadelphia. His latest switch triggered something of a debate among Republicans, who lost not only the White House in 2008 but fell deeper into the minority in both the House and Senate.

Many felt that it was a political calculation on Specter's part -- his chances for re-election as a Republican in 2010 were dim, and he wants to win a sixth term. But there is little comfort for GOP leaders in knowing that Specter's decision was driven by personal political motivations.

Specter himself admitted that the tough fight he was likely to face in getting reelected as a Republican in 2010 was a factor in his decision. He called the prospect of winning as a Republican "bleak," as a great many moderate Grand Old Party voters have shifted to the Democratic Party.

President Barack Obama welcomed Specter to the White House on Wednesday to celebrate his decision, which Obama said "reflects an independence that has been the hallmark of Arlen Specter's career since the days he arrived in Washington".

In making the switch, Specter said, "The Republican Party has moved farther and farther to the Right" and "I've found myself increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy."

And he gave an indication of his personal independence hours after telling President Obama that he would be no automatic vote for Democrats - in one of his first major votes since defecting, Specter sided with his old party, the Republicans, and voted against a $3.4-trillion budget on Wednesday night that laid the broad groundwork for policies championed by Obama's administration.

Nonetheless, these are dark days for the GOP, which for the first time in eight years finds itself locked out of the White House and overshadowed by a popular president who seems to be collecting political and policy wins at every turn.
And Republicans find themselves without a dominant, national leader.