India to overtake Japan as world’s third-largest economy: study

Britain could overtake Germany by 2030 to become Europe's largest economy; but on a global scale, it could fall behind developing economies India and Brazil, says research by an independent economic think-tank.

The study by the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), released today, should be music to Indian planners – it shows India overtaking Japan by 2028 to become the world's third largest economy.

Chief executive of CEBR Douglas McWilliams said in London, "The Indians have lost to us at cricket this winter but they are on track to beat us at economics.

"By 2017 we predict that the Indian economy will be the largest economy in the Commonwealth, overtaking the UK economy.''

China meanwhile remains on track to become the world's largest economy – it will overtake the US by 2028, according to the research.

It says the UK's GDP will move ahead of France by 2018, and surpass Germany by 2030. Brazil will overtake Britain in 2023, when it will become the world's fifth-largest economy.

But Britain's performance is seen by London commentators as stand-out in the annual world economic league table. It does second-best of all advanced economies, behind the US. It is the only major Western economy to move up the league table. But after that it slips back to seventh place in 2023 - as India and Brazil overtake.

The CBER annually gives an end-of-year forecast on the output of the 30 biggest countries over the next five, 10 and 15 years.

In its 2013 report, it says that slow growth, a weakening euro and for some countries a growing elderly population will hit many European economies.

According to the study, Germany drops from the fourth largest economy in 2013 to the sixth largest in 2023. France drops even more sharply - from fifth in 2013 to eighth in 2018 to 10th in 2023 and eventually 13th in 2028.

Italy drops from eighth in 2013 to 15th in 2028, while Spain goes from 13th in 2013 to 18th in 2028. And in a further sign of the fast-changing global economic scenario, Nigeria, Egypt, Iraq and the Philippines are slated to break into the top 30 world economies by then.

"CEBR's World Economic League Table (WELT) shows the dramatic changes now taking place in the world's economic geography with slow growing European economies falling back and Asian economies, even though their growth is slowing, catching up," McWilliams said.