Gartner revises 2009 smartphone OS projections

In a new prediction Gartner has radically revised its earlier 2009 projections of the smartphone industry which analysts say, betrays a lack of accurate foresight of the industry, on the part of the company.

Gartner, last week said it believed that the Android platform would be used by 49 per cent of all smartphones by 2012 and by 2015 Microsoft's Windows Phone in a mighty leap would take second place among smartphone platforms (excluding tablets or media players). The firm provided very precise numbers to bolster its claims down to the thousands of units. (See: Android gain 49 % global smartphone OS market by end 2012: Gartner)

Only a year and a half ago, Gartner had in a similar prediction about the smartphone industry projected a dramatic turn around for Microsoft. In fact, the Microsoft upsurge with the company selling 68 million phones by 2012 and taking around 12 per cent of the smartphone industry seems to be strikingly common to the two projections.

The two reports are at variance on all other elements over the last year and a half. Nokia's Symbian once seen to be keeping up its lead in smartphones in 2012 (with more market share than it managed to retain last year) is now seen to be on its way out, given the company's plans to drop support for it and focus on WP7 this year.

Android, which was originally expected to end up on par with Apple, Microsoft and RIM (all reaching within one percentage point of having 13 per cent shares of the market), is now expected to take half of the market, with the share of Apple now expected to grow much faster than Gartner's original prediction only 18 months ago (grabbing 19 per cent as against only 13 by 2012).

In a revision of its outlook for RIM, Gartner suggested a lesser loss in market share than anticipated initially in 2009. Slashing its collective outlook for Palm's WebOS and other smartphone operating systems (such as non-Android Linux).