Samvat 2058 trading starts off well

Mumbai: The mood during the moorat trading for Samvat 2058 clearly bore a sentiment of a different kind. There was hope instead of despair. Optimism in place of pessimism. And a bullish undertone replaced a bearish sentiment.

The message was loud and clear. Chances of a firm revival in the fortunes of the markets in Samvat 2058 are very bright. The trading pattern and the prices at which leading stocks closed at the end of a special 75-minute trading session on 14 November also gave the same indication.

The bellwether benchmark, the BSE Sensex, opened at 3079.88, moved up to touch an intra-day high of 3124.33 and closed at 3113.04, up by 35.85 points in comparison to the previous days closing of 3077.19.

Other major benchmarks, too, displayed similar trends. The S&P CNX Nifty closed higher by 10.40 points at 1015.80; S&P CNX 500 by 6.48 points at 654.38; the BSE-100 19.81 points at 1456.64; BSE-200 4.54 points at 321.98; and BSE-500 13.45 points at 950.69.

Tech stocks were the flavour of the day, with as many as many as six out of 10 top gainers on the BSE in the A group belonging to the tech sector. The BSE-tech index, too, reflected the mood correctly by closing 14.49 points higher at 737.61.

Trading volumes were good, with the combined turnover of the BSE and the NSE placed at Rs 868 crore in comparison to an average daily turnover of Rs 2,500 crore to Rs 3,000 crore on a normal trading day. The number of advances at 722 out of the total traded scrips at 1009 far outnumbered the declines, which were placed at 210.

The general consensus among investors was that the new year is destined to say good buy to bears, and bulls are set to rule the roost again. A vastly different opinion if one looks back and finds that a couple of months back it seemed as if bearish sentiments had found a permanent place on the bourses.

The basic reasons for the change in perception are:
1) The fall of Kabul, which is being seen as a major victory for the US. The feeling is that it is a matter of time that bin Laden would be in the net. In fact, the markets had begun to turn around even before Kabuls fall and 14 Novembers trading pattern was a mere extension of the previous few days. When observed closely, one will find that all major benchmarks have now reached the pre-September 11th attack levels.
2) There is a perception that the markets have bottomed out and the downside risk is minimum from the current levels. Stock valuations are at their historic lows and in most cases they are tempting buys.
3) There is a perception that the world economy may begin to recover by the second quarter of calendar 2002, the impact of which will be felt by Indian economy as well.
4) Indias economy, to a great extent, is isolated to that of the world, with only 10 per cent of its revenues coming through exports.