Nifty ends above 6100, snubs inflation data; TCS surges 4%

The market maintained its upward journey for the fifth consecutive session on Monday with the equity benchmarks closing near a month high despite higher-than-expected September inflation  data. The Nifty closed above the psychological 6100-mark for the first time since September 19, 2013. The index rose 16.50 points to close at 6112.70 while the Sensex gained 78.95 points at 20607.54. Overall it was a consolidation day for the market after a 3 percent rally seen last week. Experts feel the market may see a minor correction as it looks oversold at current levels.

Overall it was a consolidation day for the market after a 3 percent rally seen last week. Experts feel the market may see a minor correction as it looks oversold at current levels. There may be a brief correction, in between the trigger could be the US shutdown or it can be anything else but markets are oversold, says independent market analyst Satish Ramanathan. The market today was unmoved by higher inflation that rose to 6.46 percent in September from 6.1 percent in August. Core inflation too increased to 2.1 percent from 1.9 percent during the same period.

Analysts, now, believe there could be a possibility of 25 bps repo rate hike in the forthcoming monetary policy. Stock specifically, technology space continued its upward journey ahead of TCS second quarter earnings on Tuesday evening. BSE IT index rallied more than 2 percent. TCS shares surged over 4 percent while its rival Infosys and Wipro rose 1.5 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively.

BSE Bankex gained 0.55 percent today with the HDFC Bank rising 1 percent ahead of its July-September quarter earnings tomorrow. IndusInd Bank closed flat despite higher-than-expected growth in Q2 numbers. Its net profit rose 31.9 percent year-on-year to Rs 330 crore due to fall in provisions while analysts had expected net profit at Rs 316 crore for the quarter. Tata Motors jumped 1.5 percent after it announced global wholesales numbers for September 2013.

The stock gained more than 2 percent in intraday trade to touch a record high of Rs 393 apiece on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Oil & gas explorer Reliance Industries was up 0.8 percent ahead of its September quarter earnings later today. However, metals, FMCG, capital goods and power stocks were under pressure on profit booking.

3:50 pm Market closing: After a volatile session, the market ended higher. The Sensex closed up 78.95 points at 20607.54, and the Nifty ended up 16.50 points at 6112.70. About 1277 shares have advanced, 1122 shares declined, and 154 shares are unchanged. Buying in banks and technology stocks kept traders busy. TCS, Wipro, Infosys gained 1-4 percent, followed by Tata Motors and HDFC Bank. Relaince Industries ended up 0.8 percent ahead of announcing its September quarter results. Hindalco, Tata Steel, Cipla, GAIL and BHEL were top losers in the Sensex.

3:40 pm Rupee outlook: The balance of risks has turned in rupee's favour following the measures taken by the Reserve Bank (RBI) in the past couple of months, says Rohit Arora of Barclays. Currently, the strategy has changed to selling dollar-rupee on rallies, he tells CNBC-TV18. He also expects the currency to trade at current levels, which is around 60-61/USD range, going forward. Emerging markets (EMs) have got a room to stabilise their currency due to the delay in tapering of quantitative easing (QE), Arora says. He is also bullish on Indian government 10-year bonds.

3:30 pm Big bull: Tata Motors shares continued to witness buying interest after it announced global wholesales numbers for September 2013. The stock gained more than 2 percent in intraday trade to touch a record high of Rs 393 apiece on the BSE. Global group wholesales increased 7.2 percent to 87,316 units in September from 81,457 units in August while global Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) wholesales jumped 16 percent to Rs 35,874 units from 30,895 units during the same period. Meanwhile, the stock rallied 13 percent in five consecutive sessions, largely led by strong sales growth in its luxury car maker JLR last week. However, Tata Motors' domestic sales continued to disappoint the street due to slowdown in commercial vehicle space.

3:15 pm: Deutsche Bank downgraded IDFC to "hold" from "buy" and cut its target price to Rs 110 from Rs 150 citing challenging operating environment. The investment bank says its earlier expectations of loan growth revival for IDFC are unlikely to come through as there is neither fresh capex in infrastructure nor the company is in a position to gain assets via refinance.

3:05 PM Exclusive: Finance Minister P Chidambaram says the government is taking a number of steps to shore up the country's forex reserves. "Tapering will start. I think Ben Bernanke hinted again today that tapering will start. We are in fact prepared for tapering, we are preparing for tapering. First of all we are shoring up our foreign exchange reserves since the FCNRB revised policies were announced, we have had about USD 7.4 billion coming in," he told CNBC-TV18 in Washington where he is attending an intervention at the IMF Committee plenary meeting.

The market remained firm in afternoon trade on the back of support from technology and banks stocks. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries continued to trade higher ahead of its second quarter earnings later today. However, metals, capital goods and FMCG stocks are under pressure. The Sensex is up 74.08 points at 20602.67, and the Nifty is up 14.70 points at 6110.90. Advancing shares outnumbered declining ones by 1241 to 1032 on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Private sector lender IndusInd Bank pleased the street with the second quarter (July-September) net profit rising 31.9 percent higher-than-expected year-on-year to Rs 330 crore due to fall in provisions. Net interest income in the quarter gone by increased 37.25 percent to Rs 700 crore in September quarter from Rs 510 crore in a year ago period, which too was better-than-expected. Analysts on an average had expected the bank to report net profit of Rs 316 crore and net interest income of Rs 675 crore.

2:00 pm Update: State-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp said its overseas arm has agreed to buy an additional 12 percent stake in a Brazilian oil block from Brazil's Petrobras for USD 529 million, reports Reuters. Petrobras had earlier agreed to sell its 35 percent stake in the block to China's Sinochem Group for USD 1.54 billion, but the deal was subject to pre-emption rights of ONGC and Royal Dutch Shell.

1:45 pm Market outlook: Nifty will continue to climb higher despite the upmove in the past few days believes independent market analyst Satish Ramanathan. He says the market will see brief correction but since it is oversold and there is still some valuation comfort both in the largecap and the midcap, the climb will continue. Ramanathan remains confident on the midcap space considering the valuations are more attractive though such stocks do not find much presence in most institutional portfolios. Also, he believes better dividend yields and the fact that the midcap business is stabilising, may allow them to outperform.

1:30 pm Big buzzer: Shares of Tech Mahindra gained more than 2 percent in intraday trade on Monday to touch nearly six-and-half-year high of 1,585.40 after the Reserve Bank of India increased FII investment limit in software company to 45 percent from 35 percent of its paid up capital. Shareholders of the company had approved this proposal in September and now the RBI also notified that decision. Foreign institutional investors hold 32.59 percent stake in the company as of September 2013.

It's a choppy session on Dalal Street with the market being off day's highs after higher-than-expected headline inflation for September. The September wholesale price inflation increased to 6.46 percent versus 6.1% in August driven by manufacturing products. The Sensex is up 48.12 points at 20576.71, and the Nifty up 8.90 points at 6105.10. About 1157 shares have advanced, 896 shares declined, and 131 shares are unchanged. IT and bank stocks are among the gainers. TCS, Wipro, Sesa Sterlite. Dr Reddy's Labs and Coal India are major gainers in the Sensex.

Among the losers are Hindalco, Tata Steel, GAIL, Jindal Steel and HDFC. Meanwhile, in the commodity space gold prices may fall towards USD 1,250 an ounce this week as a possible resolution to raising the US debt ceiling, staving off default, shores up the dollar and undermines the precious metal`s safe-haven status, according to CNBC`s latest market survey of traders, analysts and strategists. CNBC`s latest poll of gold market sentiment showed 83 percent (15 out of 18 respondents) expect prices will fall this week, 11 percent (2 out of 18) predict price gains, while a single respondent sees prices trading around current levels.

12:59pm Street eyes Reliance Q2 earnings Reliance Industries may miss its consensus operating profit forecast for the July-September quarter when it reports results later in the day, Thomson Reuters StarMine data shows. StarMine's SmartEstimates, which places greater emphasis on forecasts by top-rated analysts, expects Reliance to report an operating profit of Rs 75.95 billion for the quarter, compared with a consensus mean estimate of Rs 80.29 billion, reports Reuters. The stock gained 0.6 percent at Rs 868.20 apiece on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

12:50pm Crude Update Brent futures edged lower towards USD 111 per barrel on Monday after an unexpected decline in China's exports, while a looming deadline for the US debt ceiling added to worries about the outlook for oil. Weekend talks to avert a US debt default showed signs of progress on Sunday, but there were still no guarantees that a government shutdown was about to end or that default would be avoided. Underscoring the urgency of resolving the impasse, both the Senate and House of Representatives are scheduled to be in session on Monday, even though it is the Columbus Day holiday, reported Reuters.

12:40pm TTK Prestige under pressure Shares of TTK Prestige fell more than 4 percent on dismal July-September quarter earnings. It reported flattish second quarter net profit (Rs 30.30 crore) while total income from operations grew by 2.97 percent to Rs 345.54 crore. However, margins were lowest in 18 quarters reflecting pressure from sharp currency depreciation. Operating profit margin declined 200 basis points to 12.8 percent in September quarter from 14.8 percent in a year ago period.

The management seems to be confident. TT Jagannathan, chairman of the company feels that the performance has been in line with expectations. The market in South India continues to face problems and we lost 12 percent in the region, he tells CNBC-TV18. He also adds that non-South areas' sales have grown smartly by 34 percent.

12:25pm Market unmoved The market recovered with the Nifty rising reclaiming 6100 level again. It was down marginally after inflation numbers announced in noon trade. Technology stocks continued to move higher ahead of September quarter earnings from TCS (on Tuesday) and HCL Technologies (on Thursday).

Infosys had revised its FY14 guidance from 6-10 percent to 9-10 percent on Friday due to improvement in the US and Europe; hence investors are keenly watching earnings from rest of the companies. Tata Motors remained on buyers' radar from last week, especially after its UK subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover declared its record sales numbers in September. The stock gained 1.4 percent today.

12:13pm The market lost its gains in noon trade after WPI inflation increased to 6.46 percent in September as against higher-than-forecast of 6 percent by analysts and 6.1 percent in August. It has been rising since May 2013 - it was 5.79 percent in July, 5.16 percent in June and 4.58 percent in May.

Core inflation also increased to 2.1 percent in the month gone by as against 1.9 percent in previous month. Food articles inflation rose to 18.40 percent from 18.18 percent and manufactured products inflation climbed to 2.03 percent from 1.90 percent M-o-M. The Sensex is up 5.19 points at 20533.78 while the Nifty is down 1.80 points at 6094.40.

Global voices continue to remain cautious on India despite signs of a pick up in growth globally. Shane Lee, director- economist-equity research at CIMB expects withdrawal of stimulus by US Fed to hit markets like India going forward. The rupee may also see further depreciation on the back of the Fed's actions, he tells CNBC-TV18.

11:55 am Buzzer: TTK Prestige is down 4 percent after it reported flattish September quarter revenues and net profit but margins were lowest in 18 quarters reflecting pressure from sharp currency depreciation. Espirito Santo maintains their sell call since it does not see any improvement going in second half as consumer sentiments remain weak. TT Jagannathan, chairman of the company  feels that the performance has been in line with expectations. The market in South India continues to face problems and we lost 12 percent in the region, he tells CNBC-TV18 .

Meanwhile, non-South areas' sales have grown smartly by 34 percent, he adds. On the company's stressed margins, Jagannathan says that the rising overhead costs could be attributed to those. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the company is targeting lower margins by 50 basis points (bps) against FY13, he adds. He expects FY14 topline growth to be at 10 percent, while bottom-line growth will be around 6 percent.

11:40 am Expert take: Udayan Mukherjee says that the fall of about 400 points when the market turned from 6,140 was quite vicious. So right now, having reclaimed most of the lost ground with flows, market's near-term trading opinion will have to be slanted on the bullish side, he adds. "Over the last few days foreign institutional investors (FIIs) seem very comfortable loading on fresh longs on the Nifty futures, even Friday's figure is Rs 1,000 crore positive on Nifty futures. So, Nifty is probably headed towards testing its September peak of 6,142 first which is not very far away, it can happen today or tomorrow. That is just 50 points and there we will have to probably see some degree of overcoming of resistance before the Nifty moves to its next level,'' he explains.

11:30 am Buzzer: Jet Airways is up 2 percent as the Etihad deal is likely to be taken in Competition Commission of India (CCI) today. The deal was approved by the cabinet last week and is awaiting the CCI nod. Earlier it had received clearance from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as well as the foreign investment promotion board.

The market is consolidating above 6100. The Sensex is up 67.45 points at 20596.04, and the Nifty is up 16.60 points at 6112.80. About 975 shares have advanced, 633 shares declined, and 108 shares are unchanged. Midcap banks like Karnataka Bank , South Indian Bank , Dhanalaxmi Bank gain ground after RBI governor Raghuram Rajan said that the central bank will soon come out with major reforms in the banking sector that will allow foreign banks to enter India in a big way and even take over domestic lenders.

Asian markets are mostly lower today as the government shutdown in the US crosses the milestone two-week mark and politicians in Washington appeared no closer to avoiding default in three days time. Currencies saw the yen strengthening against the dollar on the back of safe haven buying. The dollar retreated from the highs it set on Friday.

Commodities saw gold trade sub USD 1300 per ounze close to 3-month lows. Back home, the rupee is marginally lower today in line with Asian currencies tracking weak regional equities. Meanwhile, government bond prices are marginally higher as weaker-than-expected IIP for August gave rise to hope that government authorities may take steps to support economic growth.

10:59am Stocks In News Pratibha Industries has bagged orders worth Rs 516.2 crore from Rajasthan Government. The stock surged 9 percent. Jet Airways shares gained 2 percent as the Competition Commission of India (CCI) may take up the Jet-Etihad deal later today. Both Jet Airways and Etihad had submitted additional information for the CCI's consideration.

10:50am Suzlon Energy in focus Suzlon Energy shares rallied 3.5 percent as Suzlon Group announced a new contract win in Uruguay with a 65 MW project. "The wind farm will be supplied with 31 units of the S95 2.1 MW wind turbine with a hub height of 90 meters, part of Suzlon's S9X portfolio optimized for medium to low wind regimes. Suzlon will be responsible for full EPC delivery for the project, scheduled for completion in September 2014," the company said in its filing.

10:40am Market Expert The US Federal Reserve's decision to defer tapering most certainly gives India a chance to get its house in order, says Andrew Holland, CEO, Ambit Investment Advisors. He feels tapering may start in January 2014 at its earliest. As far as the Indian market is concerned, he feels post elections if the BJP comes to power, markets may see new highs. On individual sectors, he feels the pharma space may be in a bit of a spot. Litigations and regulation changes may continue to bother the sector. He is currently focusing on export-oriented sectors.

10:30am Gainers & Losers Shares of L&T, Tata Motors , State Bank of India and Sun Pharma gained more than 0.7 percent while Hindalco is the top loser in the Sensex, falling 3 percent. State-run capital goods major BHEL lost 2 percent followed by HDFC , ITC and ONGC with 0.2-0.7 percent losses.

Midcap and smallcap banks are on buyers' radar after governor Raghuram Rajan said the Reserve Bank of India would soon come out with major reforms in the banking sector that would allow foreign banks to enter India in a big way and even take over domestic lenders. Karnataka Bank shares rallied 16 percent and Lakshmi Vilas Bank surged 20 percent followed by South Indian Bank and Dhanlaxmi Bank with 8-10 percent gains.

10:18am The market gained some strength in morning trade Monday with the Sensex gaining nearly 100 points and Nifty trading above the 6100 level, supported by index heavyweights. The Sensex is up 93.40 points at 20621.99, and the Nifty is up 19.25 points at 6115.45. Reliance Industries (up 0.75 percent) and IndusInd Bank (up 1.5 percent) are in focus today ahead of their September quarter results. According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, analysts on an average expect net profit of Reliance Industries to grow marginally to Rs 5,400 crore during the quarter from Rs 5,352 crore in previous quarter.

In case of IndusInd Bank, analysts expect net profit to grow by 26 percent year-on-year to Rs 316 crore during the quarter. Technology stocks continued their run up with the BSE IT index gaining 1.5 percent after better-than-expected FY14 guidance from Infosys . Wipro rallied more than 3 percent while its rival TCS and Infosys rising 1-1.7 percent. TCS and HCL Technologies will announce their July-September quarter earnings on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.

10:00 am Market check: The market has managed to pull up its socks after some initial drag. The  the Sensex is up 98.33 points at 20626.92, and the Nifty is up 20.30 points at 6116.50. About 759 shares have advanced, 372 shares declined, and 55 shares are unchanged.

9:50 am Buzzer: Shares of Wockhardt are locked at 5 percent upper circuit after UK's health regulator withdrew good manufacturing practice certification of the Chikalthana facility at Aurangabad. The Mumbai-based pharmaceutical company has received a letter from Medicines & Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency, United Kingdom (UKMHRA) whereby the agency has decided to withdraw previously issued GMP Certificate to company's facility situated at L1, MIDC, Chikalthana, Aurangabad.

9:40 am FII view: Abhay Laijawala of Deutsche Equities feels that investors should focus on companies which have invested in building a presence in rural India. "M&M, Maruti, Bharti, ITC , HDFC Bank , M&M Financial, Shriram Transport, Grasim and Shree Cements are the key beneficiaries. Investors should watch the upcoming festive season which has traditionally been a good indicator of aggregate demand," he said in an interview to CNBC-TV18. Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse is positive on ITC, Emami , Marico and negative on financials ( SBI ), industrials (L&T) and metals ( Tata Steel , SAIL ).

9:30 am Results poll: Reliance is going to announce September quarter earnings post market hours today. A CNBC-TV18 poll sees EBITDA higher at Rs 7,400 crore versus a little over Rs 7,000 crore last quarter while net profit is likely to remain flat. Gross refining margins (GRMs) are seen lower at USD 7.8/bbl versus USD 8.4/bbl (Q-o-Q). The stock is up 0.5 percent on the BSE.

The market has opened on a very flat. The Sensex is up 4.62 points at 20533.21, and the Nifty down 3.20 points at 6093.00. About 254 shares have advanced, 115 shares declined, and 25 shares are unchanged. Inflation data for the month of September is expected today with both CPI and WPI likely to remain elevated. The Indian rupee opened down marginally at 61.14 per dollar as compared to Friday's close of 61.07. Agam Gupta, Standard Chartered said, "Rupee should open around 61.10 - 61.15 levels.

Inflation numbers - both WPI and CPI - to be released today will be closely watched, as will the status of the US govt shutdown and progress on lifting their debt ceiling." "We expect the WPI to be close to 6 percent and any significant deviation will impact the currency moves today. Expect the rupee to trade in the range of 60.75-61.35/USD," he added. In the currency space, the dollar trade is subdued as investors shift to safe haven currencies like the Yen and the Swiss Franc.

In commodities, crude prices extended losses in early trading as the US government shutdown and looming Thursday's debt ceiling deadline continued to fuel worries about falling demand in the world's largest oil consumer. From precious metals space, gold hovers near three-month lows after large fund trades in the previous session rattled investors.