Rupee, Asian cues, broadbased rally lift Sensex 451 points

The 30-share BSE benchmark rallied 451 points on Monday, uplifted by  positive newsflow coming out of China  and recovery in rupee. The rally was also on hopes that the Federal Reserve will continue its USD 85 billion monthly bond buying programme.

The market closed at one-week high as the Sensex rose 2.21 percent to 20,850.74, and the Nifty surged 132.85 points or 2.19 percent to 6189, continuing upmove for the second consecutive session.

The market can take out its recent high 6330 , feels Richard Gibbs, global head at Macquarie Securities.

"What we are seeing around the world is basically an acceptance on the part of investors that the US is going to continue with its liquidity boosting measures. That we are likely to see an expansion of those measures in Japan and also potentially in the euro area with the European Central Bank (ECB)," Gibbs reasoned.

Shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong hit multi-year highs today after China decided to leave its doors wide open for foreign investors by unveiling bold reform plans on late Friday. Shanghai and Hang Seng surged nearly 3 percent.

Brokerage house UBS has upgraded China to 'overweight' on the bet that the dragon country is due for a re-rating and simultaneously cut its rating on India to 'neutral' from 'overweight'.

"A re-rating on the other hand of China over the coming weeks is likely to make India pale by comparison. India is not likely to get much benefit from a China move-albeit more flows to emerging market equities might help if the China story attracts broader capital back to EM," UBS report said.

Meanwhile, the rupee, too, moved to one-week high, appreciating 70 paise to 62.41 against the US dollar.

On the stock specific action, BSE Capital Goods and Bank indices led the rally, gaining 3 percent each followed by FMCG with 2.5 percent gains and Oil & Gas with 2 percent upmove.

Shares of HDFC Bank, ITC and Larsen & Toubro were the stars of the day among largecaps in the Sensex, rising around 4 percent.

Reliance Industries, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, ONGC, State Bank of India, BHEL, Hindalco and Tata Steel rallied between 2-3 percent.

However, Coal India and Sesa Sterlite lost more than a percent.

The broader markets like BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices were up 1 percent each as advancing shares outpaced declining ones by a ratio of 1445 to 1066 on the BSE.

Financial Technologies and Ansal Properties surged 20 percent each followed by MCX with 17.5 percent upmove.

4:00 Negative outlook:
International rating agency Moody's today maintained its negative outlook on the country's banking sector, citing worries over asset quality and overall economic growth prospects.

"The negative outlook reflects our views that economic growth will be weak, banks' asset quality will deteriorate, and profitability will decline because banks need to increase loan loss reserves and will not be able to fully pass on rising funding costs or offset these through loan growth," Moody's Investors Service said in a note. Moody's, which cut its FY14 growth estimate to 4.5 percent recently, said economic growth will be lowest in a decade.

03:50 pm Market closing:
The Sensex records best single-day gain since Ocotober18, ends up 451.32 points or 2.21 percent at 20850.74. The Nifty closes up 132.85 points or 2.19 percent at 6189.00.  About 1441 shares have advanced, 1069 shares declined, and 129 shares are unchanged.

Shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong hit multi-year highs after China decides to leave its doors wide open for foreign investors. UBS upgraded China and downgrades India.

03:40 pm Update:
French banking major BNP Paribas has agreed to buy the Belgian state's 25 percent stake in its unit BNP Paribas Fortis for 3.25 billion euros (about USD 4.38 billion). BNP Paribas has a significant presence in India.

"The Belgian State and BNP Paribas announce that they have reached an agreement for the transfer to BNP Paribas of the 25 percent shareholding held by the Belgian State in BNP Paribas Fortis for a price of 3.25 billion euros," according to a joint statement issued last week by the Belgian government and BNP Paribas.

3:30 pm Market data:
Bank Nifty gains most in percentage terms since October 29. The Sensex gains most in percentage terms since October 18. The Nifty traded at a week high.

3:20 pm Govt boost:
The government is taking measures to give momentum to the growth process which was affected by the global financial crisis in 2008, a top Finance Ministry official said, reports PTI.

"The global financial meltdown has had its impact on India. While the government has taken several measures to start the growth process, we acknowledge that more needs to be done," Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram said while addressing a CUTS International conference.

The economic growth fell to a decade low of 5 percent in 2012-13 fiscal. Finance Minister P Chidambaram had last week said the growth will be between 5-5.5 percent this fiscal.

03:10 pm Buzzer:
Cox & Kings gained 4.6 percent in intraday trade on Monday as JP Morgan has assumed coverage with an overweight rating and March-15 price target of Rs 145 a share after strong set of second quarter results.

The travel company's second quarter consolidated net profit grew 79 percent year-on-year to Rs 264 crore on forex gain. Consolidated net sales rose 19 percent on a yearly basis to Rs 819 crore in three-month period ended September 2013.

"We have benefitted from strong resurgence in UK & Irish Markets," Director Peter Kerkar said in an interview with CNBC-TV18 on Thursday.

10:50am Market Update
Independent market analyst Girish Pai expects the Nifty to remain in the 6500-5500 band up until the general elections in April-May of next year. "We will see the market to be fairly firm but I think come April-May of 2014 you are going to see a binary event, which will probably lead to a peak and then market will cool off towards the second half of 2014," he told CNBC-TV18.

02:50pm Amara Raja Batteries off day's high

ICICIdirect recommends buying Amara Raja Batteries (ARBL) with a target price of Rs 380. The stock trimmed gains from 8 percent to 0.25 percent in last hour of trade on profit booking.

"ARBL's performance has continued to be impressive even as industry leader Exide has struggled to maintain profitability. With the company's consistent performance, strong return ratios, visibility on earnings and strong balance sheet, we believe ARBL's multiples deserve an upward revision. We, thus, raise our multiple to 14x FY15E EPS, higher than Exide (13x) and recommend buy with a target price of Rs 380," ICICIdirect report said.

02:45pm Market and Rupee at one-week high

Indian rupee and equity benchmarks are trading at one-week high. The Sensex is up 403.82 points or 1.98 percent at 20803.24, and the Nifty is up 116.95 points or 1.93 percent at 6173.10.

Meanwhile, the rupee gained 66 paise to 62.46 against the US dollar.

02:36pm Everonn boardroom

Gung-ho on the potential of its schools business, A Srinivasan, managing director, Everonn Education says the education arm of its company will start contributing to its revenue from April 2014.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18 on the company's Q2 results, Srinivasan says the numbers were hit due to delay in recoveries and additional financial costs.

"Over the last two quarters we have consciously taken a decision to move out of that path and concentrate on our area which is the technology delivery. So, what one sees this year is only the technology delivery," he explains.

The company has all plans of paring its debt by selling assets, but says the schools business will see a slew of investments in the days to come.

02:23pm The 30-share BSE benchmark maintained its strong momentum in afternoon trade on value buying and further short covering in major sectors like banks, capital goods and oil & gas.

The Sensex is up 368.67 points or 1.81 percent at 20768.09, and the Nifty is up 103.45 points or 1.71 percent at 6159.60.

Advancing shares outpaced declining ones by a ratio of 1384 to 1075 on the National Stock Exchange.

Richard Gibbs, global head of Macquarie Securities feels the Nifty may surpass the 6330 level.

"What we are seeing around the world is basically an acceptance on the part of investors that the US is going to continue with its liquidity boosting measures. That we are likely to see an expansion of those measures in Japan and also potentially in the euro area with the European Central Bank (ECB).In that environment, the capital inflows are looking good and as a consequence of that that is likely to drive this Indian market together," Gibbs reasoned.

Shares of ITC , HDFC Bank and L&T are the top gainers among largecaps in the Sensex, rising nearly 3 percent followed by Reliance Industries , ICICI Bank , ONGC and Tata Steel with a 2 percent upmove.

In the midcap space, MCX and Financial Technologies rallied 20 percent each and are amongst the most active stocks.

2:00 pm Interview: Nitin Johri, CFO, Bhushan Steel expects the commercial production from the new five million tonne plant to commence from first quarter of FY15. He expects this added capacity to multiply the turnover, EBITDA and profitability of the compnay, says Johri.

The current operations of the company stand at 2.2 million tonnes.

He is confident of maintaining sales growth for cold rolled coil (CRC) going forward. CRC showed a 14-15 percent growth. The slowdown in sales volumes in Q2 was only on account of lower sales in hot rolled coil (HRC) and not CRC. Because HRC was used in the company's own plant instead of selling in market, adds Johri.

1:50 pm Commodity check: Gold looked set to snap a three-day winning streak , but prices held near USD 1,300 per ounce on hopes the US Federal Reserve would stick to its easy monetary policy, burnishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation, reports Reuters.

Spot gold had eased 0.2 percent to USD 1,286.96 an ounce. Prices rose nearly 2 percent in the previous three sessions, underpinned by expectations that the nominee to lead the Fed, Janet Yellen, would continue the bank's USD 85 billion in monthly bond purchases in that role.

1:40 pm Buzzer: Hanung Toys and Textiles is locked at 5 percent lower circuit as investors are selling shares after dismal performance in second quarter.

Toys manufacturer reported a huge loss of Rs 183.7 crore in three-month period ended September 2013 as against profit of Rs 39 crore in a year ago period, impacted by lower revenues in both toys as well as textile businesses.

1:30 pmOutlook: Fitch Ratings says that the Indian government will have to rely on its budget for the financial year ending March 2015 (FY15) to fund a part of the current financial year's oil subsidies bill.

The government allocated Rs 65000 crore for petroleum subsidies in FY14, of which Rs 45000 crore was used to pay oil marketing companies for the subsidy gap incurred in the previous financial year. This leaves the government with Rs 20000 crore to meet its share of the shortfall between the subsidised price and the market price, known as under-recovery. This is likely to be insufficient, and it is likely that the state will have to tap around Rs 45000 crore from next year's budget.

The market continues to soar as global cues turn positive following dovish statements from Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Janet Yellen. The Sensex is up 340.72 points at 20740.14, and the Nifty jumps 95.60 points to 6151.75.  About 1302 shares have advanced, 909 shares declined, and 103 shares are unchanged.

Brokerages remain cautious on India's outlook. JP Morgan warns that growth, inflation and fiscal dynamics will remain challenging over the first half of 2014. UBS has a neutral rating on India.

ITC , L&T and ONGC are up around 3 percent each. Other top gainers in the Sensex are ICICI Bank and Tata Steel . Sesa Strelite, Tata Power , Cipla , Coal India and Bajaj Auto are laggards in the Sensex.

Meanwhile, the rupee hits a one-week high at USD 62.63/ USD against the green-back as the initial push from global dollar weakness gets a big boost from strong FDI flows.

Banks are on investors list as ratings agency Moody's reaffirms its outlook on the Indian banking space.

01:00pm Market Update
The market is trading at one-week high. The Sensex is up 340.65 points or 1.67 percent at 20740.07, and the Nifty is up 94.55 points or 1.56 percent at 6150.70.

ITC , HDFC Bank , ICICI Bank , L&T, ONGC , Tata Steel and Reliance Industries are the biggest gainers, rising 2.3 percent. However, Sesa Sterlite, Bajaj Auto , Cipla , Tata Power and Coal India lost between 0.4-0.8 percent.

12:50pm Natco Pharma gains for 6th day

Shares of Natco Pharma rallied more than 4 percent in intraday trade on Monday after strong second quarter numbers and winning of patent battle against Teva last week. It surged more than 19 percent in six consecutive sessions.

The main booster for the stock is its victory in a patent battle against Israeli drug-giant Teva Pharmaceuticals over 4-billion-dollar multiple Sclerosis drug Copaxone.

Meanwhile, Natco Pharma's second quarter (July-September) consolidated net profit rose 28.6 percent year-on-year to Rs 27 crore, but net sales declined to Rs 163 crore from Rs 169 crore during the same period.

12:40pm JP Associates Boardroom
Manoj Gaur, executive chairman and CEO of Jaiprakash Associates is satisfied with his company's performance for the September quarter. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, he said that the second quarter (July-September) is seasonally a weak quarter due to monsoon. Sales of cement, one of the three key businesses of the company, were hurt by the stronger-than-usual monsoon this time, Gaur said.

Despite adversities, the company still managed to report a year-on-year growth in cement, Gaur said. Yet, the outlook for the sector as a whoel remains challenging because of the oversupply situation he said.

The other two key businesses of JP Associates are engineering & construction, and real estate. Gaur said the sluggishness in macroeconomic environment was hurting both these divisions. He said order inflow in the E&C division was weak, but this was a trend across the industry. The company currently has five projects in the E&C business, and Gaur expects revenues to grow at 8-10 percent.

He said his company is planning to sell some more assets by the end of this financial year.

Brokerage house Credit Suisse has an 'outperform' rating on the stock, but trimmed earnings estimates for FY14-16 by 20-31 percent and said that debt reduction would be key to the stock's performance.

For the last couple of quarters, the company's interest expenses have been more than its earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT).

Brokerage house Goldman Sachs has retained its 'neutral' rating on the stock after the second quarter earnings. The brokerage is wary of the company's ability to refinance its debt and said it would turn positive on the stock only after more asset sales.

12:30pm Gammon Infra boardroom
After having reported extremely weak set of Q2 numbers, Parag Parikh, executive director and chief executive officer, Gammon Infra, says the company is likely to miss its FY14 guidance.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Parikh says the company's poor numbers are owing to monsoon, poor project realisations and a particular joint venture that had to be written off.

However, Parikh is optimistic of a better year ahead. He says the company's projects- the Godavari Bridge, the Pravara project as well as the Patna Highways, will be commissioned in FY15.

''Since we are already into Q3 and moving towards Q4, each (project) may not necessarily bring down substantial revenue lines from a perspective of this year, but we are crossing the milestone of finishing these three projects. Therefore, a healthy topline and bottomline will be seen in the next financial year,'' he adds.

12:15pm Equity benchmarks are in bull grip with the Nifty hitting 6150 level on consistent buying in financials, FMCG, oil & gas, capital goods and technology stocks.

The Sensex is up 348.67 points or 1.71 percent at 20748.09, and the Nifty is up 97.25 points or 1.61 percent at 6153.40. Advancing shares outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1268 to 792 on the BSE.

"Three events - RBI monetary policy (December 18), state assembly elections in December and developments on Fed's tapering - will really determine what happens to the market over the next one and a half months," Vibhav Kapoor, IL&FS said.

According to him, the upside for the Nifty is still capped at 6300 . "We will definitely need weak US data, strong one way election result and RBI not to increase rates in December. If all of these three factors happen then there could be a possibility that the upside might shift from 6300 to 6400-6500," Kapoor said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.

Meanwhile, the rupee breached the 63-mark today to trade at 62.63 against the US dollar, up 48 paise from Thursday's closing value of 63.11/dollar.

11:55 am Interview: After having reported extremely weak set of Q2 numbers, Parag Parikh, executive director and chief executive officer, Gammon Infra, says the company is likely to miss its FY14 guidance.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Parikh says the company's poor numbers are owing to monsoon, poor project realisations and a particular joint venture that had to be written off. However, Parikh is optimistic of a better year ahead. He says the company's projects- the Godavari Bridge, the Pravara project as well as the Patna Highways, will be commissioned in FY15.

11:45 am Market outlook: Beaten down cyclicals like banking, metals and select auto could regain favour with the street Sanjay Dutt, Director, Quantum Securities says. He expects the Nifty to consolidate in the 6000-6250 range in the near term. He advises investors to concentrate on stocks that are likely to benefit from changes in the economy.

In the banking space, Dutt is positive on public sector banks such as UCO Bank and Bank of Baroda , as he sees them outperforming Bank Nifty once sentiment for PSU banks improves. He is not expecting the Reserve Bank to hike rates in December policy.

He is also positive on Tata Steel , but believes that some of the other stocks may give better returns.

11:35 amUpdate: Foreign investors have poured in over Rs 4,000 crore in the equity market so far in November amid renewed optimism about the economy and delaying of US Federal Reserve's tapering of its monetary stimulus to shore up the American economy.

Total foreign investment in the stock market has reached Rs 92,936 crore (USD 16.8 billion) so far in 2013, according to the data from Securities and Exchange Board of India.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were gross buyers of equities worth Rs 22,584 crore and sellers of Rs 18,582 crore of shares from November 1-12, leaving a net inflow of Rs 4,002 crore (about USD 645 million). They invested a net of Rs 28,700 crore in stocks during the past two months (September-October).

The market is on fire led by strength in banking, capital goods and technology stocks. The Sensex is up 343.21 points or 1.68 percent at 20742.63, and the Nifty adds 98.85 points or 1.63 percent at 6155.00.

About 1318 shares have advanced, 738 shares declined, and 84 shares are unchanged.

Banking stocks like ICICI Bank , HDFC Bank and SBI have led the Bank Nifty up 2 percent. Other gainers in the Sensex are ITC , ONGC and L&T.

Meanwhile, Sesa Sterlite and Coal India continue to drag during the day.

The Asian markets gains are led by the big moves in Shanghai and Hang Seng.

Commodities are weak with Brent down as the possibility on an agreement with Iran appears imminent and gold prices too eased on uncertainty over the tapering timeline.

Most of the Asian currencies are trading higher following dovish comments from Janet Yellen and some weakness in dollar index. Government bond prices rise on value buying and tracking the rupee's strength against the dollar and also ahead of an Rs 8000 crore open market operations by the RBI today.

11:00am Market Expert
According to Bharat Iyer of JP Morgan, the outcome of the national elections in the second quarter of 2014 and the timeline of QE tapering will have a decisive role to play in shaping the earnings growth trajectory.

"We continue to prefer global sectors and companies over local sectors," he adds.

10:55am Gainers & Losers
L&T is the biggest gainer in the Sensex with 3 percent gains followed by ICICI Bank , HDFC Bank , ITC , ONGC and Wipro with 2-2.9 percent upmove.

Reliance Industries , TCS , Infosys , HDFC, SBI , HUL and Bharti Airtel rallied 1-2 percent.

However, Coal India and Sesal Sterlite fell more than 0.7 percent.

10:50am Market Update
The market extended rally on further recovery in rupee. The Sensex is up 299.85 points or 1.47 percent at 20699.27, and the Nifty is up 86.70 points or 1.43 percent at 6142.85. About 1232 shares have advanced while 523 shares declined.

The rupee appreciated by 40 paise to 62.71 against the US dollar. RBI's Open market operations for Rs 8,000 crore will be watched.

10:45am Gold eases
Gold looked set to snap a three-day winning streak on Monday, but prices held near USD 1,300 per ounce on hopes the US Federal Reserve would stick to its easy monetary policy, burnishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation.

Spot gold had eased 0.2 percent to USD 1,287.11 an ounce by 0335 GMT. Prices rose nearly 2 percent in the previous three sessions, underpinned by expectations that the nominee to lead the Fed, Janet Yellen, would continue the bank's USD 85 billion in monthly bond purchases in that role, reports Reuters.

10:35am Amara Raja Batteries hits new high

Shares of Amara Raja Batteries jumped around 8 percent, hitting a record high of Rs 341 in intraday trade on Monday. The stock is ridding high on strong September quarter earnings. Its second quarter net profit grew 34.92 percent to Rs 94.58 crore compared to Rs 70.10 crore year-on-year.

During the period, net sales of the company was at Rs 804.72 crore as against Rs 716.15 crore in the same period corresponding fiscal.

"I am happy to note that our sustained good performance continues to be in line with our annual plan and expectations, despite slowing economy, volatile rupee and sluggish demand in the automotive and UPS OEM sectors,"Jayadev Galla, Vice Chairman and Managing Director of the company said. The stock gained 3.7 percent.

10:25am The market continued to rally on Monday with the Sensex rising nearly 300 points, led by recovery in Indian rupee against the US dollar.

The Sensex is up 287.67 points or 1.41 percent at 20687.09, and the Nifty is up 82.90 points or 1.37 percent at 6139.05. Three shares advanced for every share declining on the BSE.

Irrespective of where the Sensex or the Nifty is headed, the approach should be bottom up, says Sanjay Dutt, Director, Quantum Securities. He feels much of the action will now shift to midcap stocks.

Beaten down cyclicals like banking, metals and select auto could regain favour with the street on the growing view that the worst may be over for the economy, he says. He expects the Nifty to consolidate in the 6000-6250 range in the near term. He asks investors to concentrate on stocks that are likely to benefit from changes in the economy.

Financials, FMCG, oil & gas, technology, power and capital goods stocks are witnessing buying interest whereas Tata Motors , Coal India, Sesa Sterlite and Dr Reddys Labs are the only losers in the Sensex.

Meanwhile, the rupee gained 31 paise to 61.80 against the US dollar. RBI today will conduct open market operations for Rs 8,000 crore.

10:00 am Buzzer: Shares of Amara Raja jumps around 5 percent on the back of strong September quarter earnings. Its second quarter net profit grew 34.92 percent to Rs 94.58 crore compared to Rs 70.10 crore year-on-year.

During the period, net sales of the company was at Rs 804.72 crore as against Rs 716.15 crore in the same period corresponding fiscal.

9:50 am: For all the fevered speculation about when the Federal Reserve will begin scaling back its monetary stimulus, market volatility has been taking a leisurely nap, suggesting investors see no major shocks on the horizon to derail their bets, reports Reuters.

Low market volatility is a sign markets expect no "taper" any time soon, or that they are steeled for a reduction in the pace of the Fed's bond-buying if it comes.

The sting of the taper has been gradually sucked out of markets since the Fed's surprise decision not to start withdrawing stimulus in September.

9:40 am Downgrade: Brokerage house UBS has cut its rating on India to 'neutral' from 'overweight', and simultaneously upgraded China to 'overweight' on the bet that the dragon country is due for a re-rating.

"We still like India, at the micro level a lot. But it is by nature a longer-term story, not an overnight sensation," says the UBS note.

9:30 am Update: A Parliamentary Standing Committee on petroleum and natural gas has observed that non- adherence by Reliance Industries to the approved field development plan of KG D-6 block be construed as "default", reports PTI.

The committee, which submitted its recommendations last month, also suggested that the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry should explore all possible options and take corrective measures to increase the gas production from the KG-D6 block as observed in the study commissioned by DGH.

The market has kick-started the week on a strong note. The Sensex is up 189.46 points or at 20588.88, and the Nifty is up 58.15 points at 6114.30. About 321 shares have advanced, 68 shares declined, and 14 shares are unchanged.

HDFC Bank , ICICI Bank , SBI Bank are lending strenght to the indices while Infosys is up over 1 percent. Coal India drags in morning trade.

The rupee breached the 63-mark in early trade on Monday to open at 62.85 per dollar, up 26 paise from Thursday's closing of 63.11 per dollar.

Agam Gupta of Standard Chartered feels dollar-rupee should open lower at 62.90-62.95/USD. "There has been some dollar weakness since India market close on Thursday. This will cause the sentiment to be slightly rupee positive," he adds.

According to him, the range for the day is seen between 62.75-63.25/USD.

In commodities, crude prices rose moderately in choppy trading on Friday, supported by Libyan supply outages and supportive comments from the fed chair nominee. However, gains were limited by reports that a deal with Iran may be near on its nuclear program.

From the precious metals space, gold snapped a three-day winning streak on Monday but prices continued to hold near the USD 1300 level amid hopes the US Federal Reserve would stick to its easy monetary policy, burnishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation.