Sensex ends 132 points down; IT & infra fall, oil & gas gains

17 Oct 2013

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3:55 pm FII view: According to Adrian Mowat of JP Morgan, the stability in currency and good monsoon will be a positive for India. He says the corporate sector has come out with decent set of numbers so far despite it being a fairly choppy period, which is another huge positive. Mowat expects fund flows into emerging market equities, though he is a bit more circumspect on bond flow.

3:45 pm Market closing: After a volatile trading session, the market ended lower as selling pressure mounted on. The Sensex ended 132.11 points down at 20415.51 while the Nifty fell 43.20 points at 6045.85. About 1215 shares have advanced, 1230 shares declined, and 142 shares are unchanged. Bharti Airtel , ONGC , Bajaj Auto , ITC and Reliance are major gainers in the Sensex. Top losers in the Sensex include TCS , Tata Motors , L&T, Wipro and Infosys .

3:30 pm Boardroom: The July-September quarter has been satisfying for Mindtree, as the company witnessed strong revenue (dollar) growth for second successive quarter, says CEO and MD Krishnakumar Natarajan. The midcap IT company reported revenue growth of 5.4 percent sequentially (15.6 percent year-on-year) at USD 124 million. Speaking to CNBC-TV18 post results, Natarajan says the demand environment of the company has improved over the last few months. Positive demand environment coupled with specific intervention has led to the growth being consistently higher in the last two quarters, he adds.

3:20 pm Analysis: Emerging markets, India included, have been largely immune to the political wrangling in the US over the Budget. The markets did not react much when the US government shutdown two weeks ago, and so now see no reason to be excited about the US Congress having reached a settlement. The bipartisan agreement between the House of representatives and the Senate will fund the federal government through January 15 and raise the debt ceiling through February 7. And it is not just emerging markets that have chosen to ignore the political drama in the US. Equity benchmarks in the US, and those in the top three European markets - Germany, UK and France - are up 1.5-3.0 percent so far this month.

The market is extremely volatile. The Sensex is down 47.97 points at 20499.65, and the Nifty down 20.70 points at 6068.35. About 1200 shares have advanced, 1123 shares declined, and 136 shares are unchanged. Technology, capital goods and auto stocks are under heavy selling pressure.  However, oil and gas are outperforming with ONGC leading the pack. Axis Bank's net profit surged 21.2 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,362.3 crore in September quarter. Net interest income (NII) rose 26.2 percent to Rs 2,937 crore during July-September quarter from Rs 2,327 crore in a year ago period, which was ahead of analysts' forecast. According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, analysts on an average had expected the bank to report net profit of Rs 1,243 crore and net interest income of Rs 2,830 crore for the quarter. Global markets are upbeat after the US congress passed the debt limit Bill to end the two week long government shutdown. Most Asian markets are up around 0.5 percent while the S&P 500 is now just shy of its all time high.

The market is weak in afternoon amid volatility with the Sensex falling below the 20500 level, weighed down by technology and capital goods stocks. The Sensex is down 76.31 points at 20471.31, and the Nifty is down 30 points at 6059.05. Tata Motors and TCS are the biggest losers in the Sensex, falling 4 percent each followed by L&T, Infosys and Wipro with 2-3 percent losses. Top private sector lender ICICI Bank lost 0.8 percent whereas its rivals HDFC Bank and State Bank of India gained 0.35 percent each. Shares of Bharti Airtel , ONGC and Bajaj Auto surged 2-3 percent followed by index heavyweights Reliance Industries and ITC with more than a percent gains. ITI rallied 12 percent as Cabinet approved telecom equipment procurement policy. According to the policy, the government will buy 50 percent of equipment from domestic manufacturers. Infotech Enterprises gained 2.5 percent after its second quarter consolidated net profit rose 33.5 percent sequentially to Rs 72.5 crore and revenue jumped 13.5 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 549.3 crore.

2:00 pm Market check: The market has fallen further with the Sensex down 127.74 points at 20419.88. The Nifty is down 42.45 points at 6046.60. About 1103 shares have advanced, 1130 shares declined, and 140 shares are unchanged. TCS fell 5 percent, followed by Tata Motors with a loss of over 4 percent. BSE IT Index is down more than 3 percent while capital goods stocks, too, were under selling pressure. Focus on FMCG stocks remained.

1:50 pm Q2 results: South Indian Bank's second quarter (July-September) net profit rose nearly 31 percent year-on-year to Rs 126.75 crore on account of lower provisions, but the asset quality worsened in the quarter gone by. Net interest income jumped 22 percent to Rs 364 crore in September quarter from Rs 298 crore in a year ago period. Provisions and contingencies fell 81 percent Q-o-Q (down 16.7 percent Y-o-Y) to Rs 19.76 crore during second quarter. The stock is at Rs 20.65, down Rs 0.30, or 1.43 percent on the BSE.

1:40 pm Market opinion: Unlike most market participants, Udayan Mukherjee of CNBC-TV18 does not feel the market will focus on the second quarter earnings season. "I disagree a little bit. Earnings will cause some near-term volatility in a few stocks, here and there, but I don't think earnings will come as a major surprise," he says. He believes market will be more focused on liquidity flows, global macros and domestic political developments. "As more and more state elections and polls materialise, the market will get more and more excited about the prospect of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stealing a march over the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which it will see as a positive," he says.

1:30 pm September Earnings: India's third largest private sector lender Axis Bank's net profit surged 21.2 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,362.3 crore in September quarter. Net interest income (NII) rose 26.2 percent to Rs 2,937 crore during July-September quarter from Rs 2,327 crore in a year ago period, which was ahead of analysts' forecast. According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, analysts on an average had expected the bank to report net profit of Rs 1,243 crore and net interest income of Rs 2,830 crore for the quarter.

The market is in a very narrow range. The Sensex is up 14.50 points at 20562.12, and the Nifty is down 1.35 points or 0.02% at 6087.70. About 1156 shares have advanced, 948 shares declined, and 143 shares are unchanged. Banks and capital good stocks are seeing profit taking while focus in back on FMCG stocks. Bajaj Auti, ONGC , Bharti Airtel , Reliance and ITC are top gainers in the Sensex. Tata Motors, TCS, L&T, NTPC and Cipla are among the laggards today. In important earnings reaction, HCL Tech sees profit taking after the dollar revenues comes just about in line with expectations with analysts raising concern about the lopsided revenue growth. Bajaj Auto rises 2 percent after the numbers beat street estimates on the back of rupee depreciation.

Bajaj Auto managing director Rajiv Bajaj said it would be tough to sustain the near-23 percent operating margin seen in the September. Bajaj Auto reported strong second quarter numbers largely due to better realization in the export market because of a weak rupee. "The margin was unusually high even by our own standards," he said in an interview to CNBC-TV18. However, Bajaj was confident that the new launches in the September quarter should give added momentum to exports in the coming days. The company lost 2 percent market share in the two-wheeler segment during the quarter, and is hoping to recoup it through the new variant of the Discover model. Brokerage house Kotak Securities said in its result review note that a re-rating of the stock is contingent on the company increasing its domestic market share. The company realised Rs 60 to the dollar in Q2 and is hopeful that realization will be around the same range this quarter too. He is expecting strong festive season sales to boost the company's bottomline, as festive sales typically increase 70-100 percent every year. Bajaj is targeting to sell 40 lakh units during the current financial year.

R Sukumar, MD and CIO of Franklin Asian Equities feels that the current valuations of the Indian market are attractive for long-term investors. As and when the economy picks up, it will positively impact the topline growth for many companies thereby boost their earnings, says, so he recommends investors to adequately allocate their funds to the equity market. However, he expects the July-September earnings and return on equities to be depressed, he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview. On specific stocks, he prefers private sector banks over public sector banks given the former's increasing market share.

12:30pm Equity benchmarks are directionless in noon trade with the Sensex gaining 11.88 points at 20559.50, and the Nifty falling 0.40 points to 6088.65. Petrochemical major Reliance Industries rallied 2 percent and its rival ONGC gained nearly 3 percent on a media report that state-run oil & gas explorer has found rich reserves in KG basin block with reserves seen at 100mt which is four times earlier than estimate. Bajaj Auto remained in bull grip, rising 2 percent after better-than-expected second quarter numbers. Main reasons for good performance is higher than expected realisation due to rupee depreciation and better product mix. Second quarter profit rose 13 percent year-on-year to Rs 837 crore and revenue rose 5 percent to Rs 5,061 crore. Bharti Airtel too gained more than 2 percent as top telecom operator added 11.6 lakh GSM users in September as against 8.3 lakh users in August. HCL Technologies shares crashed 4 percent as JP Morgan worried about the lop-sided nature of company's growth. Infra-management (about one-third of HCL Tech's revenues) contributes more than 75 percent of total incremental revenues for fifth straight quarter, the brokerage house reasoned. "We believes HCL Tech is a good near-term story, but the lop-sided nature of growth makes us a tad cautious about the sustainability of growth over the longer term," JP Morgan report said.

12:00 pm FII view on earnings: Despite a good start to second quarter earnings season, Arvind Sanger of Geosphere Capital Management is still circumspect about the financial performance of India Inc and warns that the worst of earnings season is not behind us yet. Quarterly earnings, RBI moves and economic policies are likely to determine Indian market's moves going ahead, he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview. In current market scenario of high volatility, Sanger suggests hiding in technology stocks. The valuations of IT companies can continue to trend towards higher levels, they are clearly safe haven now, he elaborated.

11:50 am Results poll: Axis Bank , the country's third largest private sector lender, will announce its second quarter (July-September) results today. According to a CNBC-TV18 poll , analysts on an average expect profit after tax of the bank to rise 11 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,243 crore. Net interest income may increase 22 percent to Rs 2,830 crore in September quarter from Rs 2,327 crore in a year ago period.

11:45 am Bajaj Auto Boardroom: Managing director Rajiv Bajaj said it would be tough to sustain the near-23 percent operating margin seen in the September. Bajaj Auto reported strong second quarter numbers largely due to better realisation in the export market because of a weak rupee. "The margin was unusually high even by our own standards," he said in an interview to CNBC-TV18. However, Bajaj was confident that the new launches in the September quarter should give added momentum to exports in the coming days.

11:30 am Buzzer: Shares of ONGC jumps 3 percent after reports indicate it has found rich reserves in KG basin block with reserves seen at 100mt which is four times earlier than estimate.  ONGC has consistently missed its production targets over the last five years despite a healthy reserve replacement ratio (1.84 in FY13) due to project delays and most new finds being in difficult terrain.

The market continues to be flat. The Sensex is up 9.91 points at 20557.53, and the Nifty is up 0.05 points at 6089.10. About 1130 shares have advanced, 770 shares declined, and 104 shares are unchanged. ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel , Hero MotoCorp and ITC are lead gainers in the Sensex. On the losing side are Tata Motors,TCS, L&T, ICICI Bank and SBI . All Asian markets are in the green reacting to the US debt ceiling issue getting resolved. Straits, Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are all up. President Barrack Obama signed the legislation to end the shutdown, lifting the US debt cap. US markets end near session highs on Wednesday after a senate deal put an end to the government shutdown. US 10-year bond yields fall to 2.68 percent in reaction to the debt debate resolution. Analysts say even if the senate and house have overcome procedural hurdles now; it is only a temporary solution that sets up the prospects of another shutdown early next year. Gold fluctuated within a narrow range after US lawmakers reached an agreement to increase the debt ceiling, trading flat now USD 1280/ounce while crude holds above USD 110/bbl today. The rupee opened higher in sync with most emerging market currencies following relief over the US ending the government shut down and allowing its treasury to continue borrowing; exporters and FIIs were noted selling dollars. Bond markets too reacted positively to the US news, especially after us bond yields fell following the end of the political impasse. However bond markets gains are subdues by the upcoming Rs 15,000 rupee bond auction tomorrow.

The market gained marginal stregnth amid volatility with the Sensex rising 59.45 points to 20607.07, and the Nifty climbing 15.90 points to 6104.95. Despite a good start to second quarter earnings season, Arvind Sanger of Geosphere Capital Management is still circumspect about the financial performance of India Inc and warns that the worst of earnings season is not behind us yet.  Meanwhile, he does not see this Indian market rally extend itself. According to Sanger, this can be a relief rally since the US debt default risk has gone away in the short-term , but global macros continue to witnesses some tailwinds. However, he added that no QE tapering is expected in US Federal Reserve's October policy. Quarterly earnings, RBI moves and economic policies are likely to determine Indian market's moves going ahead, he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview. In current market scenario of high volatility, Sanger suggests hiding in technology stocks. The valuations of IT companies can continue to trend towards higher levels, they are clearly safe haven now, he elaborated.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will continue to 'maintain discipline ' while bidding for orders, the company's chief executive N Chandrasekaran said in an interview to CNBC-TV-18's Menaka Doshi. What he could be hinting is that TCS will not compromise on price for driving volume growth. Chandrasekaran said the order pipeline continued to grow at healthy rate and he was confident of it sustaining. He said pricing remained stable at this point and that his company was targeting an operating profit margin of 26-28 percent. He denied there was pressure on pricing though realizations dropped for the second successive quarter in July-September. "It has nothing to do with pricing. It is largely to do with the mix and the number of working days otherwise we won't be able to have the kind of margins that have been delivered," he said. "If you look at the growth and the margins realisations, it will always vary. It is not the parameter to determine," he said.

India's second-largest motorcycle manufacturer by sales, Bajaj Auto's second quarter profit rose 13 percent year-on-year to Rs 837 crore - beating analysts' forecast - as a weaker rupee boosted export earnings and revenue rose 5 percent to Rs 5,061 crore. A CNBC-TV18 poll had expected profit of two-wheeler company to rise 7.3 percent year-on-year to Rs 795 crore and revenues to fall 1.5 percent Y-o-Y to Rs 4,900 crore in September quarter due to weak domestic demand and strike at Chakan plant.

10:27am The market remained listless in early morning trade, with the Sensex falling just 5.90 points at 20541.72, and the Nifty losing 6.10 points at 6082.95. However, the broader markets outperformed benchmarks. BSE Midcap Index gained 0.6 percent and Smallcap rose 0.4 percent. Advancing shares outnumbered declining ones by 744 to 435 on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Shares of TCS and Tata Motors fell nearly a 3 percent in morning trade on profit booking. TCS had rallied 12 percent in past 15 days ahead of earnings that was higher than analysts' forecast. The stock may have discounted earnings. Tata Motors had rallied on strong Jaguar Land Rover sales numbers for September and brokerage upgrades. It gained 14 percent in past 15 days. Banks are also under pressure. Top private sector lenders ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank lost more than a percent while their rivals State Bank of India and Axis Bank are flat. Axis Bank, the country's third largest private sector lender, will announce its second quarter (July-September) results today. According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, analysts on an average expect profit after tax of the bank to rise 11 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,243 crore. Analysts expect margin of Axis Bank to moderate by 10 basis points Q-o-Q due to proportion of wholesale funding that may increase cost of funds. The bank has seen mark-to-market losses on trading income due to higher yields. Hence, lower other income will weigh on overall profit after tax. However, FMCG majors ITC and Hindustan Unilever gained more than 1.3 percent while oil & gas explorers Reliance Industries and ONGC rose over a percent.

10:00 am Market check: The market is extremely flat with the Sensex at 20544.37, down 3.25 points and the Nifty is down 1.70 points at 6087.35. About 680 shares have advanced, 443 shares declined, and 52 shares are unchanged. Bajaj Auto , HUL , Tata Steel,  Bharti Airtel and ONGC are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are Tata Motors , TCS , L&T and HDFC twins.

9:50 am TCS Boardroom: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will continue to 'maintain discipline' while bidding for orders, the company's chief executive N Chandrasekaran said in an interview to CNBC-TV-18's Menaka Doshi. What he could be hinting is that TCS will not compromise on price for driving volume growth. Chandrasekaran said the order pipeline continued to grow at healthy rate and he was confident of it sustaining. "It has nothing to do with pricing. It is largely to do with the mix and the number of working days otherwise we won't be able to have the kind of margins that have been delivered," he said.

9:40 am FII view: Laurence Balanco of CLSA feels the Nifty is retesting resistance at recent high of 6,120-6,239 area. "There is further resistance at 2010 highs of 6,330-6,340 area. This resistance zone is likely to cap further gains and lead to price volatility in the coming weeks. The 200 DMA and late September lows provides initial support at the 5,730-5,754," he said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.

9:30 am Big boost: Bajaj Auto jumps around 3 percent on the BSE as it beat analyst estimates by reporting a 13 percent rise in second-quarter profit, boosted by export earnings on weak rupee. The two-wheeler manufacturer posted a net profit of Rs 837 crore for the three months to September 30 compared with Rs 741 crore in the same period a year earlier. Revenue rose 5 percent to Rs 5061 crore.

The market opened flat on Thursday despite resolution on the US debt ceiling. The Sensex is up 15.01 points at 20562.63, and the Nifty is up 5.25 points at 6094.30. Meanwhile, the rupee gained 29 paise to 61.55 against the US dollar in early trade. In the US, stocks closed at session highs on Wednesday with the Dow surging 200 points and S&P within one percent of hitting its record after Senate leaders announced a long-awaited compromise to raise the debt ceiling and put an end to the government shutdown. The agreement came just one day before the treasury was expected to exhaust its ability to borrow more money. European stocks closed higher overnight, paring earlier losses, as investors bet on an imminent deal in the US to end the shutdown. In Asia, the Yen hit a new three-week low against the dollar for a second consecutive session, trading at 99 per dollar; seventh straight session of gains. Korea-central bank data showed producer prices eased for a twelfth straight month in September. In the currency space, dollar rose against most currencies. The greenback had risen earlier to a three-week high against the Yen and a two-week peak versus the Euro. Brent crude was up 1 dollar per barrel to over 111. Nymex is up 1.08 dollars per barrell at 102.29 From precious metals space, gold prices edged up to 1281 an ounce. Gold has fallen about 4 percent since the government shutdown began on October 1, disappointing investors who had hoped that uncertainty over the US economic situation could spur safe-haven bids.

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