Weatherman announces end of monsoon

The India Meteorological Department says that this year's unusually dry monsoon has started retreating from the north-west regions, its last bastion in the country. The total rainfall so far has been 22 per cent below normal, making it the worst monsoon since 1972, IMD admitted on Friday.

"The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from many parts of west Rajasthan. It is likely to withdraw from some more parts of northwest India during next three to four days," it said in a statement.

The deficit was especially marked at 34 per cent in the northwest regions, the biggest sugarcane-producing area in the country.

According to the IMD, the withdrawal line has passed through Ganganagar, Churu, Jodhpur and Barmer in Rajasthan. However, many other parts of the country will continue to get rain, it said. It has predicted scattered rainfall in north-eastern states, and widespread showers in Maharashtra and peninsular India, in the next few days.

The total monsoon rainfall this year till 23 September estimated by the IMD at 66.83 cm, about 22 per cent below the normal level of 85.87 cm for the period. The maximum deficiency is in the northwest, followed by the northeast (25 per cent), central India (19 per cent) and the southern peninsula (8 per cent).
Only two of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions have got excess rainfall (over 20 per cent above normal), while 12 have recorded normal rainfall. As many 22 sub-divisions have remained rain deficient.

The two main prolonged dry spells during this monsoon season were from the second to the fourth week of June, and again from the end of July till 12 August. A strangely erratic monsoon is officially dying a couple of weeks later than usual - September, when the monsoon should normally begin to recede, witnessed fresh spurt of rain that benefited the standing kharif crops, and also raised hopes about timely sowing of rabi crops.

The withdrawal process has been in the making for some time, with the skies over Rajasthan and large parts of northwest India clearing up and the mercury consistently peaking to beyond 40 degrees Celsius.

On Friday, the IMD's weather charts showed a large anti-cyclone (high-pressure) formation coming in from across the northwest border. This has raised hopes of late rains in eastern and even parts of central India. The anticipated low-pressure area is expected to materialise over the Bay by Sunday.

The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction sees the whole of the Indian peninsula and parts of central India being brought under the cover of thundershower activity until 11 October.