Australia records $19.3-billion consumer spending in March quarter, avoids recession

Australian consumer spending registered a record $19.3 billion in March, encouraged by the government stimulus package, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today, raising the question whether Australia is in recession.

The retail trade turnover jumped by 2.2 per cent in March to a seasonally adjusted $19.3 billion, after dipping 2.0 per cent in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. This was well above the market expectations of a 0.5 per cent increase.

The March turnover level is slightly higher than its December data, when the first round of fiscal stimulus package was unveiled, and it is a jump of 6.3 per cent up from a year earlier.

The latest data suggest that the second round of $26.5-billion stimulus rolled out in Feburary this year has helped boost spending in the first quarter of the year, and will continue to support growth through the June quarter. (See: Australia unveils $26.5-billion new economic stimulus)

Moreover, Centrelink - as part of the federal Government's $42 billion stimulus package started doling out around $2.7 billion one-off payments to eligible taxpayers while farmers, single-income families and those with children were among the first to receive their bonus payments in February and March and is expected to continue until May 16.

Retail sales which were down for two months in a row, were up 13.2 per cent in March, with department stores sale doing well. Sales of clothing and soft goods was up 6.4 per cent.

Interest rate cuts and lower prices for petrol have not been included in the retail trade survey will also support consumer demand.

The data also shows retail trade adjusted for inflation was up by 1.0 per cent in the March quarter, seasonally adjusted, a somewhat strong rise.

The surprise retail sale data which will be merged with the national accounts figures is due for release on 3 June, which will show the trend whether Australia is growing or is in recession.

Last month, the Australia's Reserve Bank conceded that the country has become a part of the global recession. (See: Australian economy in recession: Australian central bank governor )

In the gross domestic product equation, retail spending accounts for 60 per cent of domestic demand.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics also said the imports of consumer goods were up by 14.7 per cent in March compared to a fall of 13.2 per cent in February.

The trade surplus rose notably by $746 billion to $2.498 billion in March, almost to an equivalent extent of the deficit recorded a year earlier.

Territory-wise sale in March showed that consumers in the Northern Territory were big spenders, growing 4.2 per cent, followed by Queenslanders at 3.2 per cent and Victorians at 2.7 per cent, while ACT sales fell 0.1 per cent.

Retail sales over the March quarter increased by 1 per cent to $54 billion, in adjusted terms, well above the economists' expectations of 0.8 per cent rise.

Analysts expect the latest data to rule out any further interest rate cuts in the near term as the government considers whether the economy is picking up and whether it will sustain for the subsequent quarters too.