Bonanza ahead for generic drug majors

Mumbai: India''s top generic drug majors such as Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy''s Laboratories, Cipla, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Wockhardt and Nichola`s Piramal are all set to tap the Rs10,000-crore opportunity as at least around 100 drugs will go off patent in 2005 alone in 15 different therapeutic categories. Around 20 of these are blockbuster drugs that have a turnover of $1billion each.

The blockbuster drugs include the big names like Paxil (GSK), Zithrol-x (Pfizer), Zolast (Pfizer), Zocor (Merck), Combivir (GSK), Zoladx (AstraZenca), Zofran (GSK), Prosacr (Merck), Recombivax HB (Merck) and Fragmin (Pharmacia).

According to a study conducted by the US-based University of Maryland (School of Pharmacy), in the oncology segment (cancer and cancer-related treatments) around 12 drugs will go off patent in 2005 alone while the number will touch 132 by 2010.

Anti-infective segment will see 7 off-patent drugs in 2005 (82 in 2010), while in the central nervous system (CNS) segment, another 6 drugs will go off-patent in 2005 (65 in 2010). Around 8 drugs will go off patent in the cardiovascular/ cerebro-vascular segment next year. By 2010, the number will touch 50.

As many as 4 respiratory drugs will go off patent in 2005 (44 in 2010) and in endocrine, nutritional, metabolic and immunity treatments, around 8 drugs will go off patent in 2005 (40 in 2010).

The number of drugs going off patent in other sectors are as follows: topical treatments (31 in 2010), hormonal treatments (30 in 2010) musculoskeletal and connective tissue treatments (28 in 2010), AIDS and AIDS-related treatments (27), analgesic treatments (26), digestive system treatments (24), blood disorder therapies (20), genitourinary treatments (17) and other miscellaneous treatments (27).

VVLN Sastry, country head, Firstcall India Equity Advisors, said, "Drugs going off patent were resulting in a huge market potential for the generic drugs and the year 2005 will see maximum number of drugs going off patent. The immediate opportunity is larger than at any time in the history of pharmaceutical industry."

He added that on the pricing front the treatment categories and associated bulk drugs are subject to price life cycle fluctuations, as competition was the key to deciding pricing.