Nuclear, biological terror attack by 2013, warns official report

A biological or nuclear terrorist attack is likely to occur somewhere around the globe during the Obama administration or shortly thereafter, a new official report in the US has warned.

The report, titled "The World at Risk'' has been prepared by the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism conveys the message in no uncertain terms ''that unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.'"

The biggest threat is a biological attack, which the report considers to be a greater possibility than a nuclear or radiological attack. "Terrorists are more likely to be able to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon. The commission believes that the US government needs to move more aggressively to limit the proliferation of biological weapons and reduce the prospect of a bioterror attack," it says.

"The acquisition of deadly pathogens, and their weaponisation and dissemination in aerosol form, would entail fewer technical hurdles than the theft or production of weapons-grade uranium or plutonium and its assembly into an improvised nuclear device," the report argues.

While terror groups lack the expertise to make biological weapons, the study warns "terrorists are trying to upgrade their capabilities and could do so by recruiting skilled scientists." As a cautionary example, "The World at Risk" cites the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States, which the FBI and Justice Department have maintained were conducted by the late Bruce Ivins, a bio-weapons researcher at Fort Detrick.

The report specifically said its goal is not to frighten or reassure people about risks. It also does not lay out specific risks of an attack on the US, although the threats are apparent. It prominently states, "The next administration must work to openly and honestly engage the American citizen, encouraging a participatory approach to meeting the challenges of the new century."

There is a range of recommendations in the report for combating the threat of WMD for the next administration. They include calling for an international conference on biosecurity for example, and for preventing Iran and North Korea from pursuing nuclear ambitions. It also said citizens should be better informed and prepared. It also recommends that the Obama administration create a new White House position dedicated to fighting WMD.

The report prominently criticizes Iran. "Iran continues to defy its NPT [nuclear non-proliferation treaty] obligations, UN Security Council resolutions, and the international community in an apparent effort to acquire a nuclear weapons capability. It has 3,850 centrifuges spinning and more than 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium - three-quarters of what would be needed, after further enrichment, to build its first bomb."

The report notes in its appendix: "Only India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan are not members of the NPT." It reinforces Israel's so-called strategic ambiguity with regard to its nuclear weapons arsenal: "Since the United States exploded the first nuclear bomb in 1945, seven additional states are known or suspected to have joined the nuclear weapons club: Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, Israel, India, and Pakistan."

It also maintains a positive view of the US-India nuclear deal: "US-Indian cooperation in the civilian nuclear power industry must not be allowed to become the catalyst of a nuclear arms race in Asia."