UK retailers body raises sales forecast upwards from 3.1 to 3.4%

With increases in consumer spending expected to remain solid during the remainder of the year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) today said retail sales for 2016 are now expected to grow 3.4 per cent over last year rather than the 3.1 per cent forecast earlier. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the overall figure, are expected to increase 7-10 per cent year-over-year rather than the 6-9 per cent forecast earlier.

''Economic indicators are showing positive trends for retail,'' said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay, citing the improved housing market, job growth, higher wages and other factors that have boosted consumer spending. ''Challenges remain, with some greater than others depending on the retail category, but consumer confidence remains high and we believe that retail customers will continue the positive trends we have seen in the first two quarters of the year.''

Retail sales in the first half of 2016 performed at a solid pace, growing close to 4 per cent on a year-over-year basis, according to NRF calculations, which exclude automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants. NRF expects gross domestic product to grow between 1.9 and 2.4 per cent.

''There are many factors that could prove to be hurdles but our overall outlook is optimistic,'' NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. ''Uncertainty surrounding the presidential election could make consumers more cautious, and the combination of a rising dollar and global slowdown have impacted exports, but other factors like favorable weather patterns that will help move winter merchandise support our outlook.''

NRF is watching economic developments closely and will evaluate any changes to its forecast as necessary. If needed, the next update to forecast will come as part of NRF's annual holiday forecast in October.

UK-based NRF is the world's largest retail trade association, representing discount and department stores, home goods and specialty stores, Main Street merchants, grocers, wholesalers, chain restaurants and internet retailers from the US and more than 45 countries.

Retail is the nation's largest private sector employer, supporting one in four US jobs – 42 million working US citizens.

Contributing $2.6 trillion to annual GDP, retail is a daily barometer for the nation's economy.

NRF's This is Retail campaign highlights the industry's opportunities for life-long careers, how retailers strengthen communities, and the critical role that retail plays in driving innovation.