Chinese threat to Indian space assets

With all the three wings of the Chinese defence set up going through a process of massive modernization and augmentation, India has every reason to get worried over the possibility of a "Chinese threat" to the territorial integrity of the country. The "subtly expansionist" incursions by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) along the Line of Actual Control in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim and its deployment of nuclear submarines at a facility on Hainan Island in South China Sea are only some recent examples.

Not so far back in time, another incident which made everybody sit up and take notice of Chinese intentions was the shooting down of a junk weather satellite with the help of a missile. This incident only served notice of the belligerent intentions of India's northern neighbour.

Of course, the Indian Air Force (IAF) chief Air Marshal FH Major has made it clear that ground work is under way to make extensive use of space assets for a variety of passive and active combat roles and that the IAF is fully well aware of the threat faced from "space and cyberspace".

The aerospace command

Against this backdrop, the otherwise low key Indian defence minister AK Antony was frank enough to drive home the threat faced by "Indian space assets" from the growing Chinese prowess in the area of "space militarization". India, which is now a major space-faring nation, has a substantial number of satellites for communications, weather watch and earth observation in orbit. In fact, while addressing the United Commanders Conference held in New Delhi in mid-2008, Antony minced no words in deliberating upon the Chinese threat without making a direct reference to India's neighbouring communist giant. The thrust of Antony's thesis was on the Chinese advances in the area of "Star Wars."

Antony underscored India's worries over the emergence of "anti-satellite weaponry, a new class of heavy-lift boosters and an improved array of military space devices in our neighbourhood." Admitting that the ongoing developments provide a pointer to the threat facing "Indian space assets", Antony wondered as to how long India can "remain committed to the policy of non-weaponization of space even as counter space systems are emerging in our neighbourhood".

Antony backed up his concern by the announcement of the formation of a tri-services space cell that will be a single window agency within the Integrated Services Headquarters. The space cell, while helping Indian defence forces access the constellation of satellites being operated by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), will also serve as the forerunner of a full-fledged aerospace command, whose formation has been deferred for a long time now. In particular, the IAF has been pressing the Government to approve the formation of such a command, which is likely to be headquartered at the southern Indian city of Thiruvananthapuram. The aerospace command will also have active participation from Indian Space Research Organisation(ISRO) and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

Meanwhile, the IAF chief, ACM FH Major, has made it clear that preparations are on to fully harness the capabilities offered by the country's satellite systems to boost preparedness and operational capabilities of the IAF. ACM Major has said that through an increased use of satellites and introduction of net centric warfare techniques, the IAF is set to emerge as a power of global standing.

Supporting the observation of the defence minister, Indian army chief General Deepak Kapoor expressed his concern over the fast growth of the well tuned Chinese space programme "especially in military terms with a thrust on offensive and defensive contents". Gen. Kapoor has highlighted the country's need to "optimize space applications for military purposes".

He has also made a forceful plea for the creation of a tri-service aerospace command, especially for surveillance and reconnaissance that would ensure rapid response to emerging threats. But then Gen. Kapoor was cautious to state that "the establishment of a tri service aerospace command for the exploitation of space will have to evolve dynamically".

Lt Gen HS Lidder, chief of the Integrated Defence Staff has expressed the view that "there is every possibility that we might get sucked into military contests either to protect our assets or to launch an offensive. And that is why a space cell is a precursor of a tri-service aerospace command".

It does appear that the Indian military establishment has come to view outer space as a new, and emerging, theatre of conflict, which so far has been fought only on land, air and water. It now argues that India should be well equipped to tackle potential adversaries in this "futuristic battlefield".

Borrowing ISRO assets

As things stand now, the role that ISRO could play in any proposed aerospace command remains uncertain. For, on the face of it, ISRO remains a civilian space agency with a mandate to peacefully exploit outer space for socio-economic development of the country. The activities of ISRO are in public domain and hence open to scrutiny. In public, ISRO maintains a safe distance from the defence establishment though the satellite constellations under its control are regularly accessed by Indian forces.

As of now, there are no exclusive military satellites catering to the specific needs of the Indian armed forces. Of course, all the three wings of the service have been clamouring for dedicated defence satellites to boost their preparedness.

The 690 kg Cartosat-2A advanced earth observation satellite, launched in April 2008, interests the Indian armed forces particularly. The satellite, with a resolution of one metre, is capable of providing detailed mapping of the terrain and landscape features. Similarly, navigation satellites planned for launch by ISRO in the near future could also come in handy for the defence forces as they would determine location status with a high degree of precision.

Moreover, a GPS satellite with a navigational payload would also contribute to the success of net centric warfare doctrines which the Indian defence forces are set to incorporate in their operational plans.

In parallel, efforts are on to exploit advances in areas of communications, computers, command and control and inter-operability. These would allow the services to get a holistic picture of the battle field and also allow them to destroy targets with a high level of probability, and in real time.

Similarly, sophisticated intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems, capable of monitoring the movement of adversaries would be available through the use of space platforms.

As is widely known, military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, spearheaded by US and allied forces, the entire range of reconnaissance information systems, including tactical UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) imageries, were analyzed at a central facility and transmitted back to the ground forces with minimum time-loss through a satellite communications system. There is no doubt that the net-centric warfare strategy paves the way for information sharing across multiple levels of traditional echelons of command and control.

On its part, the United States Air Force (USAF) which describes itself as an "integrated aerospace power" says that its responsibilities stretch from the surface of the earth to the orbital regions. The long-term strategy of the American space command includes the plan to destroy the well guarded space assets of the enemy camps in lightning speed. In fact, the thesis of the warfare experts is that since the success of military and strategic operations on ground depends on "alert birds" in outer space, whosoever knocks down the largest number of enemy satellites, stands to hold the strategic lead. Weather-watch spacecraft, predicting climatic and atmospheric conditions to facilitate bombing raids, navigation satellites guiding lethal arms to desired points, reconnaissance satellites locating the exact geographic position of military targets, electronic ferret satellites getting data on radar frequencies, communications satellites providing key links between the troops spread across a vast geographic swath and ocean watch satellites snooping on naval movements of the enemies have all become puppets on the chain of modern day warfare.

Indian defence forces are keen to get high resolution data from the defence satellites of Israel, including ISRO's PSLV- launched TECSAR reconnaissance satellite. The PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) is ISRO's four stage workhorse rocket. 

Battlefield of the future

Glaring intelligence failures, experienced particularly during the Kargil skirmish of 1999, continues to prod Indian defence forces to strengthen their intelligence gathering capabilities through the acquisition and analysis of high resolution satellite imageries.

As pointed out by Dr VK Aatre, former chief of DRDO, the need for India to go in for a system dynamic enough to protect its space assets has become pronounced in the context of the developments in China."We have fought wars in the air, water and land. But the way things are going, Star wars will no longer be just a fiction", observed Dr Aatre.

He also stated that 'India should adopt new technologies just as Russia and USA are doing to safeguard their interest in this new age space war. The USA has 110 military satellites, while the Russians have 40. This clearly signals that future wars will be space-based. It is necessary for us to develop satellite based electronics systems to ensure that our valuable space assets do not become vulnerable",

Against such a backdrop, the Indian defence planers have stressed on the need for a greater integration of activities and certain synergies between ISRO and DRDO to avoid duplicity of research efforts and pave the way for profitable and mutually beneficial sharing of resources. It is interesting to note that the development of nuclear-capable, surface-to-surface Agni range of missiles, spearheaded by the DRDO, did benefit from the solid-fuel technology developed by ISRO for its rockets.

Chemical fuel, navigation as well as guidance and electronics are among the hardware that are common to both satellite launch vehicles and missiles. The successful deployment of the PSLV for multiple satellite launches reveals that India has built a certain capability to develop Multiple Independent Retargetable Vehicles (MIRV). Of course, the technology going into MIRV would need to be far more precise and sophisticated than the one used in launch vehicles. On its part, DRDO has already hinted at a plan to develop MIRV technology.

Meanwhile, the tie-up that ISRO has forged with the New Delhi-based Brahmos Aerospace , the Indo-Russian outfit responsible for developing Brahmos supersonic cruise missile, augurs well for greater synergy between a civilian space organization and an outfit active in the area of defence oriented research and development. As part of this tie-up, Brahmos is planning to take up the engineering and integration of the Indian launch vehicles, such as the PSLV and the three-stage GSLV (Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle).

The upcoming Brahmos facility at Thiruvananthapuram, which also happens to be the nerve-centre of Indian launch vehicles development, will also handle space tech related infrastructure work for ISRO's futuristic missions.

It may be recalled that in the aftermath of the widely publicized Chinese anti satellite test of early 2007, ISRO chairman G.Madhavan Nair had stated that though it is well within the capability of ISRO to develop and deploy a system to knock down a satellite in orbit, India's concern is to keep outer space an area of peace and tranquillity. As it is, the Communist giant had stunned the entire world by successfully deploying a ground- based, medium-range ballistic missile to destroy an aging weather satellite, located at an altitude of 537 miles.  

The dragon's breath

By all means, this was the first demonstration of China's well-conceived plan to perfect a satellite killer device as a prelude to its "space weaponization programme".

All said and done, China would need to achieve a greater degree of sophistication to destroy enemy satellites meant for end-uses, such as communications, surveillance and navigation. For such satellites are placed into a higher orbit. But it is easier to kill reconnaissance satellites, a majority of which move in low earth orbits.

Taking a cue from earlier Russian and American experiments, China is also experimenting with high-powered laser weapons to knock out satellites. In incidents prior to the anti-satellite test, the Chinese "painted" an American satellite with laser beams. "They let us see their lasers. It is as if they are trying to frighten us" says Gary Payton, a senior Pentagon official dealing with space. What makes laser an ideal device for use as a space weapon is its inherent quality of moving straight without getting diffused or dissipated.

This light beam of a laser is of immense potential as it heats up the outer surface of a missile, or a satellite, until it is knocked out. Imaging surveillance satellite would be particularly vulnerable to blinding by laser beams because their functions depend on devices which are sensitive to light.

In the Chinese context, there is hardly a dividing line between space activities and defence projects .For the totalitarian communist regime in the country ensures that space and defence establishments in the country are free from public scrutiny. China, which has already accomplished two manned missions, is now busy preparing for another space spectacular in the form of a space walk and docking.

It has also hinted that it has a clear-cut plan to put in space an orbital complex which would give the communist giant an ideal platform to further its "space war ambitions". China could use its space complex to either shoot down a missile or kill a satellite.

China is also quietly building a new generation of heavy lift-off space vehicles to support its long-term space goals.

China also has in its possession a large number of ICBMs capable of reaching targets beyond 10,000-km. In sharp contrast, the most powerful ballistic missile in India's possession is the Agni-III, designed to reach a target at a distance of 3,000-kms.

The DRDO, of course, has plans to develop a 5,000-km range Agni-V. Also on DRDO's agenda is a plan to develop a submarine launched ballistic missile. It is also known that India is sufficiently well-equipped to build ICBMs with 10,000-km range as it exploits advances in space vehicle and missile technology.

For the moment, China is focussed on a programme to modernise its ballistic missile forces with the aim to improve its long-range strike capability.

Older generation, liquid fuel-driven ballistic missiles are now being replaced by a new generation of solid propellant road mobile missiles. Solid fuel driven missiles have a clear cut advantage over the liquid propellant missiles. For solid propellants, being earth storable, can be filled into missile silos in advance.

It is high time India took cognizance of the all-round defence oriented developments in its neighbourhood and prepare the ground to tackle the challenge posed by China's versatile military modernization drive.