India’s GDP growth falls to decade’s low of 5% in 2012-13

India's economy grew at a slow pace of 4.8 per cent in the fourth quarter (January-March 2013) of the 2012-13 financial year, pulled down by poor performance of farm, manufacturing and mining sectors, resulting in a decade's low economic growth of 5 per cent during the 2012-13 fiscal.

Gross domestic product (GDP) of the country at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for the 2012-13 fiscal is now estimated at Rs55,05,437 crore (against Rs55,03,476 crore estimated earlier), showing a growth rate of 5.0 per cent over the first revised estimates of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs52,43,582 crore.

This is the second-lowest growth rate in a decade since the Indian economy recorded a grown rate of 4 per cent in the 2002-03 fiscal.

India's GDP grew at 6.2 per cent in 2011-12. The economy has since grown at 5.4 per cent, 5.2 per cent and 4.7 per cent in the first, second and third quarters, respectively, of 2012-13, data released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) showed.

The decline in GDP numbers was due mainly to lower production in the 'mining and quarrying' sector where the index of industrial production (IIP) registered a decline of 0.6 per cent during 2012-13.

Mining and quarrying sector contracted by 3.1 per cent during the fourth quarter of last fiscal, as against growth of 5.2 per cent in the same period of 2011-12. The contraction in mining sector remained unchanged at 0.6 per cent in 2012-13 over the previous fiscal.

However, in the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production showed a slight upward revision to 1.9 per cent against the growth rate of 1.8 per cent in the advance estimates.

Similarly, the manufacturing sector grew at 1.0 per cent in 2012-13, with the index of manufacturing showing a growth rate of 1.2 per cent during 2012-13, as against the projected growth rate of 1.9 per cent for April-March 2012-13 in the advance estimates.

The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production and consumption of cement and finished steel grew at a slower growth rate if 4.3 per cent during the 2012-13 fiscal against the 5.9 per cent growth projected in the advanced estimates.

In the banking sector, aggregate bank deposits and bank credit have shown higher growth rates of 14.3 per cent and 14.2 per cent, respectively, during 2012-13 over the corresponding period in 2011-12.

Railway freight and passenger traffic grew 0.3 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively, during 2012-13 while trade, hotels and transport sector have recorded a growth of 6.4 per cent in 2012-13 against 5.2 per cent projected in the advance estimate released in February 2013. This is attributed to improved performance by the private corporate sector in 2012-13.

The 'community, social and personal services' sector showed a growth of 6.6 per cent in the revised estimates, as against the growth rate of 6.8 per cent in the advance estimates.

Gross national income
The country's gross national income (GNI) is estimated to have risen 4.9 per cent during 2012-13, in comparison to the growth rate of 6.4 per cent in 2011-12. GNI during the 2011-12 fiscal stood at Rs51,96,848 crore, against the previous year's first revised estimate of Rs51,96,848 crore.

GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs93,61,113 crore during 2012-13, compared to Rs82,76 ,665 crore during 2011-12, showing a rise of 13.1 per cent.

Per capita net national income
The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2012-13 is estimated to have grown at 3.0 per cent to Rs39,168, as compared to the first revised estimates for the year 2011-12 of Rs38,037. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 3.0 per cent during 2012-13, against 4.7 per cent during 2011-12.

The per capita income at current prices during 2012-13 is estimated to have increased by 11.7 per cent to Rs68,757 against the first revised estimates for the year 2011-12 of Rs61,564.

Gross domestic product
GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2012-13 is estimated at Rs94,61,013 crore, showing a growth rate of 13.3 per cent over the first revised estimates of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs83,53 ,495 crore, released on 31 January 2013.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs29,64,677crore in 2012-13 as against Rs27,49,072 crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs19,29,988 crore in 2012-13 as against Rs18,97,309 crore in 2011-12.

In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 29.6 per cent and 33.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.6 per cent and 33.7 per cent, respectively, in 2011-12.

The rates of change in stocks and valuables at current prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 3.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively.