India likely to grow by 8-9 % for next 20 years: Montek
18 May 2012
Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman, Planning Commission, told the United Nations on Thursday that India has the potential to sustain a GDP growth of 8-9 per cent for the next two decades – but added that a ''supportive'' global environment is needed to achieve this goal.
Addressing a debate on the 'State of the world economy and finance in 2012' at the UN General Assembly in New York, Ahluwalia pointed out that the Indian economy grew at an average rate of 9 per cent in the five years prior to the financial crisis of 2008. But after that, growth slowed down to just over 7 per cent.
He did not of course mention that the growth has slowed still further since then; and economists are not sanguine about India coming anywhere near Ahluwalia's growth figure in the near future, with fiscal turmoil abroad and a political mess at home.
"We believe India has the potential to grow at rates between 8 or 9 per cent for the next twenty years and to do so in an inclusive manner," Ahluwalia said; but added, "There are many challenges we have to face domestically to achieve this target."
Ahluwalia said India would be greatly helped if the global environment is supportive, and "we are willing to work with others to make it so".
He said that while the financial crisis slowed growth in developing nations, it was satisfying to note that growth rates have remained more robust than many would have expected, particularly when expansion in the developed countries has been hit hard by the financial crisis.
He adhered to the government policy of relying on statistics in order to show a growth story, though he did not mention that India's high growth figures come from a very low base.
"This 'growth resilience' reflects the fact that large numbers of developing countries now have stronger human and institutional capacities to grow. These economies are not delinked from industrialised countries; the links are strong, but they operate on a higher underlying growth potential," he told the meeting of senior economic officials.
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